In the words of Jeffrey Sachs, a prominent American economist, the USA is having a nervous breakdown and is no longer a dominant power in global affairs. While it still holds a military edge over other nations, its economy is in relative decline. It is chipping away at its own “exceptionalism,” historically defined by its democracy, freedom, and once unrivaled economy. The mighty dollar is losing its grip, signalling a potential shift in the global financial landscape.
Over the next three decades, the world order is poised to transform dramatically, with BRICS countries— particularly China— emerging as dominant powers. In terms of purchasing power parity, China, India, and Russia already occupy three of the top four positions globally. While the USA’s decline may unfold gradually, one thing is certain: the future will be a vastly different world, with technology driving every facet of global affairs. The West will no longer be the uncontested centre of gravity.
This seismic shift in global dynamics demands urgent attention from policymakers in Pakistan. The choices and actions Pakistan takes in the coming years will determine its place in the emerging world order. Central to this recalibration is the need for Pakistan’s most powerful institution— its military— to fundamentally rethink and reformulate its approach to both the country and its people. Strategies that worked in the past will not suffice in the future. In the medium to long term, the military cannot simultaneously govern the nation and secure its borders. The example of Egypt serves as a cautionary tale, its military-dominated governance has led to persistent economic struggles. A strong economy is inseparable from the rule of law, and Pakistan must prioritize this to secure its future.
What Pakistan urgently needs is rule of law. Not the selective kind enforced at the whims of the powerful, but genuine, institutionalized legal equality. The constitution must be restored in its true spirit, not reinterpreted to serve power players. Pakistan’s democratic institutions— parliament, the judiciary, the election commission, and the media— must be revitalized and protected from political engineering. No nation in the 21st century can thrive without public trust in its governance structures. And trust cannot be built on fear and suppression; it is built on accountability, transparency, and participation.
Pakistan is too diverse, too complex, and too evolved to be ruled by a stick. Its people, especially the younger generation, are connected, aware, and restless. The idea that stability can be manufactured through repression is not only outdated— it is dangerous. The building blocks of national cohesion and sustainable economic growth lie in constitutionalism, democracy, and human rights.
Pakistan’s path to stability and prosperity will only begin with establishing the rule of law. The country’s constitution must be restored in its truest form, serving as the bedrock for governance. Democratic institutions, which have been eroded over time, need to be rebuilt to foster national cohesion and sustainable economic growth. Pakistan’s diversity— its myriad ethnicities, languages, and cultures— cannot be governed by force or authoritarian measures.
The absence of rule of law has stifled Pakistan’s potential for decades. Corruption, nepotism, and institutional decay have undermined public trust and economic progress. Rebuilding democratic institutions requires more than cosmetic reforms; it demands a commitment to transparency, accountability, and inclusivity. For instance, an independent judiciary and a free press are essential to ensuring that power is exercised responsibly and with accountability. Strengthening these institutions will not only enhance governance but also attract foreign investment, which is critical for economic growth in a rapidly changing global landscape.
Pakistan’s economic challenges are compounded by its failure to prioritize education and human capital development. With a young and growing population, the country has a demographic dividend that could propel it forward—if harnessed correctly. However, this potential will remain untapped without robust institutions that prioritize education, healthcare, and skill development. The global economy is increasingly driven by technology, and Pakistan risks being left behind if it does not invest in its people and modernize its institutions.
For decades, Pakistan’s military has dominated not just defence but also dictated foreign policy, economic priorities, and domestic political architecture. This civil-military imbalance has hindered the development of democratic institutions, discouraged meritocracy, and weakened civilian leadership. The traditional security state model— where national interest is narrowly defined through military lenses— has exhausted its utility. It may have helped Pakistan survive in a cold war context or during the US-led War On Terror, but it cannot deliver prosperity in a technology-driven, multipolar world where economic strength, education, and institutional resilience determine national power.
The military’s outsized role in Pakistan’s governance has been both a strength and a liability. While it may have provided stability in times of crisis, its dominance has often come at the expense of democratic institutions and economic progress. The military must transition from being a political arbiter to a professional institution focused solely on national security. This shift is not about diminishing its importance but about aligning its role with the needs of a modern state in a tech-driven world.
Pakistan stands at a critical juncture in its history. The changing world order, driven by the rise of BRICS countries and the centrality of technology, demands that Pakistan act decisively to secure its place in the global arena. The next few years will be pivotal. Pakistan must prioritize the rule of law, rebuild its democratic institutions, and redefine the military’s role to foster a strong and inclusive economy.
Egypt’s experience illustrates the perils of military overreach. Despite its strategic importance and significant foreign aid, Egypt’s economy has struggled under military-dominated governance. Pakistan must avoid this path by fostering a clear division of responsibilities: the military protects the borders, while civilian institutions govern the state. This requires a cultural shift within the military, emphasizing professionalism and deference to civilian authority. Such a transformation will not only strengthen Pakistan’s democracy but also enhance its international credibility, making it a more attractive partner in the global arena.
On the international stage, Pakistan must adopt a principles-based foreign policy that prioritizes long-term strategic interests over short-term, transactional gains by touting its geostrategic location. Historically, Pakistan’s foreign policy has been reactive, often driven by immediate needs or external pressures. While transactional approaches may yield temporary benefits, they risk alienating potential allies and undermining Pakistan’s credibility. A principles-based foreign policy, rooted in sovereignty, mutual respect, and regional stability, will better position Pakistan in the emerging world order.
The rise of BRICS countries, particularly China and India, presents both opportunities and challenges for Pakistan. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship project of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, has the potential to transform Pakistan’s economy through infrastructure development and trade connectivity. However, Pakistan must ensure that its partnership with China is mutually beneficial and does not lead to dependency. Similarly, navigating relations with India— a rising economic power— requires a delicate balance of diplomacy and pragmatism. While historical tensions persist, confidence-building measures and trade cooperation could unlock significant economic benefits for both nations.
Pakistan must also diversify its international partnerships to avoid over-reliance on any single power. Engaging with emerging economies in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, as well as maintaining ties with traditional allies like the USA and Gulf countries, will enhance Pakistan’s geopolitical flexibility. In a multipolar world, agility and strategic foresight will be critical to securing Pakistan’s interests.
The changing world order is inextricably linked to technological advancements. From artificial intelligence to renewable energy, technology is reshaping economies, societies, and geopolitics. Pakistan must prioritize technological development to remain competitive. This includes investing in digital infrastructure, promoting STEM education, and fostering innovation through public-private partnerships. A tech-savvy workforce will be essential for Pakistan to integrate into the global economy and attract investment in high-growth sectors.
Moreover, technology can strengthen governance by enhancing transparency and efficiency. E-governance initiatives, such as digital public services and blockchain-based systems for land records, can reduce corruption and improve service delivery. By embracing technology, Pakistan can leapfrog traditional barriers to development and position itself as a regional hub for innovation.
Pakistan stands at a critical juncture in its history. The changing world order, driven by the rise of BRICS countries and the centrality of technology, demands that Pakistan act decisively to secure its place in the global arena. The next few years will be pivotal. Pakistan must prioritize the rule of law, rebuild its democratic institutions, and redefine the military’s role to foster a strong and inclusive economy. A principles-based foreign policy will ensure that Pakistan navigates the complexities of a multipolar world with confidence and clarity. Failure to adapt risks relegating Pakistan to the margins of the global stage, at the mercy of a tech-driven world order. By choosing wisely and acting boldly, Pakistan can not only survive but thrive in the new global landscape.
The new world order will not wait for laggards. The country must break with the past, shed its addiction to authoritarian governance, and embark on a path of institutional reform, economic restructuring, and intellectual revival.
The age of global patronage is ending. No superpower will bail Pakistan out indefinitely. Survival and success in this new era will depend on internal coherence, economic strength, and policy agility. Pakistan can either rise to the occasion—or sink under the weight of its outdated assumptions. The window is narrow. The stakes could not be higher.
