Talks breakdown

The failure to hold talks can prove costly

The indirect diplomacy reached its limit, and resulted in the USA not sending a delegation to Pakistan. The Iranian delegation continued its peregrinations to Oman and Egypt. The breakdown seems to have occurred because the Iranian proposal communicated to US President Donald Trump seemed so distant to him that he chose to have his team stay away. The fundamental question of the Hormuz Strait has not been settled, much to the chagrin of the whole world, and of the USA, for either the waterway is open, or it is blockaded. The USA has not shown the ability to open it, and the apparent ‘double blockade’ by both countries has left the Strait essentially closed. Iran does not seem daunted, rather encouraged, by its initial clash, and thus does not seem willing to give the USA the kind of exit it needs, where Mr Trump and his votaries may claim in November that he has ‘won’ at the midterm election due then.

One immediate consequence of this breakdown has been the breakdown of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire and the Israeli resumption of its attempt to conquer Southern Lebanon. The logic behind that seems to be the Israeli perception that the USA had wanted it to stop its depredations in Lebanon because it was an Iranian precondition for negotiation, and with the breakdown, there was no need for Israel to stop.

There seems an element of misperception too great for the mediator, Pakistan, to bridge. The USA apparently thought the ceasefire and the consequent talks were meant to discuss the terms of surrender. In the old days, one of the issues was whether the losing side would retain their arms, or their battle standards. It did not change the result: even if they retained their arms, they had lost. Iran seemed to think the talks were a sort of renegotiation of the 2013 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, with sanctions lifted and money returned.

It now seems that while the current ceasefire will remain in place, there is going to be a further trial of strength, with the USA likely to try some kinetic measure, against which Iran will react. Will this prove decisive? That will only be so if there is some change. Like the rest of the world, Pakistan can only watch. There is little it can do now, except make increasingly futile efforts for peace.