Subcontinent may face weaker monsoon as super El Niño is expected, says PMD official

KARACHI: The subcontinent could experience a weaker monsoon this summer as the El Niño weather pattern is expected to develop later this year, according to Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) spokesperson Anjum Nazir Zaigham.

Speaking on the expected climate pattern, Zaigham said, “We are expecting El Niño in the coming summer and it is expected to become ‘super El Nino’ by the end of August to September,” adding that El Niño tends to suppress the summer monsoon across the subcontinent.

El Niño and La Niña are climate patterns linked to temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and can influence weather conditions around the world. According to the United States’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), these events usually occur every two to seven years, although they do not follow a fixed timetable.

Last month, NOAA said there was a 50- to 60-per cent chance that El Niño would emerge during the July-September period and continue beyond that window.

The previous El Niño episode took place in 2023-2024. It contributed to making 2023 the second highest year on record and 2024 the all-time high.

Climate scientist Tido Semmler of Ireland’s National Meteorological Service said earlier that if El Niño forms in the latter half of this year, its impact would be greater in 2027 than in 2026. Explaining the delayed effect, he said, “It takes time for the global atmosphere to react to the El Nino,”.

Weather outlook for Sindh and Karachi

In a forecast issued on Wednesday, the PMD said “hot and dry weather was likely to prevail over most parts” of Sindh.

For Karachi, the department forecast “warm” conditions for today and tomorrow, with the maximum temperature expected to reach 36 degrees Celsius today. Morning humidity was projected at 80 per cent, before easing to 40-50pc by evening.

For Friday, the PMD said the city was likely to experience hot weather, with the daytime temperature expected to rise to 37°C, while night temperatures were forecast to remain between 24-26°C.

How El Niño affects global weather

NOAA says El Niño generally brings drier-than-usual conditions to southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa and northern Brazil. At the same time, it is associated with wetter conditions in the Horn of Africa, the southern United States, Peru and Ecuador.

The phenomenon can weaken the trade winds that normally blow from east to west across the tropical Pacific. As NOAA explains, “Warm water is pushed back east, toward the west coast of the Americas,”.

This shift warms parts of the central and eastern Pacific that are usually cooler, changing rainfall patterns over the equatorial Pacific and affecting wind systems globally. The additional heat released from the Pacific Ocean into the atmosphere can temporarily raise global temperatures, which is why El Niño years are often among the warmest ever recorded.