PMD warns of drier June-August period and higher temperatures across most of Pakistan

ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Meteorological Department has forecast below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures in most parts of the country during June, July and August, with the sharpest rainfall shortfall expected in northeastern Punjab.

In its seasonal outlook issued on Wednesday, the PMD said the Indian Ocean Dipole is currently in a neutral phase and is likely to shift to a positive phase by July 2026. It added that the El Nino-Southern Oscillation has entered a positive phase, or El Nino, and is expected to strengthen further during the season.

Based on these conditions, the department said most areas of Pakistan are likely to receive normal to below-normal rainfall during the June-July-August period. Its probability outlook showed a high likelihood of below-normal rain over much of the country, especially Punjab, Sindh, southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and most parts of Balochistan.

The PMD said northern areas were expected to see a different pattern, with near-normal to slightly above-normal rainfall forecast for Gilgit-Baltistan, adjoining parts of northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Kashmir.

Temperature outlook and regional variation

The department said average temperatures are expected to stay above normal across the country throughout the season. The highest departures are forecast for northeastern parts of Pakistan, particularly eastern Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir and adjoining areas of northern Punjab.

According to the probabilistic outlook, above-normal temperatures are likely across much of the country, with the strongest likelihood over Sindh, southeastern Balochistan, and central to northeastern Punjab. In contrast, western Gilgit-Baltistan is projected to lean towards below-normal temperatures.

Risks for agriculture, water and public safety

The PMD warned that reduced rainfall could lead to moisture stress during Kharif sowing and the early stages of crop growth, lower productivity in rain-fed farming areas, and increased demand for irrigation water. At the same time, it said higher precipitation in upper catchment areas could improve reservoir storage and support water availability for both agriculture and the power sector.

The department also highlighted the possibility of flash floods and landslides in mountainous and flood-prone areas of northern Pakistan because of higher rainfall there. It further warned of urban flooding in low-lying parts of major cities in all four provinces.

According to the PMD, high temperatures combined with humid conditions during intermittent rainfall episodes, particularly in southern regions, may raise the risk of vector-borne diseases such as dengue. It also indicated the possibility of heatwave conditions, especially over the plains of southern Punjab and Sindh.

The PMD said sharp temperature contrasts could trigger strong winds, dust storms and hailstorms, with possible effects on crops, infrastructure, visibility and transportation. It added that higher temperatures in Gilgit-Baltistan and Kashmir are expected to accelerate snowmelt, potentially increasing glacier-related hazards including glacial lake outburst floods and pushing up river water levels.

The department said timely monitoring and control measures would be necessary to prevent faster development of crop pests and diseases.