PMD forecasts above-normal rain in north, drier conditions in south

ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has projected above-normal rainfall in the country’s northern areas and below-normal precipitation in southern regions over the next three months, while warning that elevated temperatures could heighten the risk of heatwaves, urban flooding, landslides and agricultural losses.

In its latest outlook report, the PMD said most parts of Pakistan recorded normal to above-normal rainfall during February-April 2026. Moderate to heavy spells of rain were observed in western, northwestern and central parts of the country in March and April, while hailstorms were also reported in parts of Punjab and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa.

The department added that rainfall was also received in parts of Balochistan and Sindh during the same period. Average temperatures across the country stayed above normal in the three-month period, with the sharpest increase recorded in Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Rainfall and temperature trends

The PMD said overall rainfall in Pakistan remained 8.7 per cent above normal at 133.7 millimetres. Sindh recorded 126pc above-normal rainfall, while Balochistan received 31.9pc more rainfall than the average.

According to the department, the seasonal outlook was prepared using analysis from nine global climate models. The Indian Ocean Dipole is currently in a neutral phase, but is expected to move into a positive phase by the end of the season.

The PMD further stated that El Niño conditions are also likely to strengthen, which may increase rainfall activity in northern and northwestern parts of the country.

Possible impacts on agriculture and water

The department warned that below-normal rainfall in southern areas could lead to moisture stress for Kharif crops and raise irrigation demand. At the same time, increased rainfall and snowmelt in northern regions may improve water levels in reservoirs and support the agriculture and power generation sectors.

The outlook links the expected weather pattern with both risks and potential benefits. While heavier rainfall in upper parts may contribute to urban flooding and landslides, it may also help replenish water resources. In contrast, reduced rainfall in the south may place added pressure on farming activity during the Kharif season.

The PMD’s assessment comes after a three-month period in which several parts of the country saw above-normal rainfall and persistently higher temperatures. The department’s latest forecast indicates that this uneven pattern is likely to continue, with wetter conditions expected in the north and comparatively drier weather in southern regions.