PMD warns of lower rainfall and hotter weather across most country until September

ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Meteorological Department has extended its outlook for July to September, saying most parts of the country are likely to receive normal to below-normal rainfall while temperatures are expected to stay above normal.

According to the PMD’s three-month forecast, the Indian Ocean Dipole is currently in a neutral phase and is expected to gradually shift to a positive phase during the season. At the same time, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean are showing a warming pattern that points to the development of El Niño conditions, which the department said are generally linked with suppressed rainfall over Pakistan.

The PMD said these warming conditions were expected to continue through the July-September 2026 period and could strengthen further as the season advances. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is usually associated with slightly above-normal monsoon rainfall in Pakistan, but added that the expected late onset of that phase may restrict its overall effect on seasonal rainfall.

Rainfall and temperature outlook

The department’s forecast shows a broad tendency toward normal to below-normal rainfall across much of the country during the three-month period, with the smallest negative departures expected in northeastern Punjab and nearby areas. Its probabilistic rainfall outlook also points to below-normal rainfall in most regions, including Punjab, Sindh, southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and most parts of Balochistan.

In contrast, Gilgit-Baltistan, کشمیر, and upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are expected to receive normal to slightly above-normal rainfall. The PMD also said average temperatures are likely to remain above normal across the country, with the largest departures expected over northeastern Punjab and eastern Gilgit-Baltistan.

Its tercile probabilistic temperature outlook indicates that most models favour above-normal temperatures nationwide, with the highest likelihood covering most of Punjab, southern parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, extending into eastern Balochistan and western Sindh.

Risks flagged by the PMD

The PMD warned that near-normal to slightly above-normal precipitation in northern regions could raise the likelihood of flash floods and landslides, particularly in mountainous and flood-prone areas. It also flagged the risk of urban flooding in the plains of major cities across all four provinces.

Above-normal temperatures in Gilgit-Baltistan, upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Kashmir could speed up snowmelt, potentially increasing river inflows and streamflow in downstream catchments. It also warned of the possibility of glacial lake outburst floods in those areas.

For agriculture, the department said below-normal rainfall across the four provinces points to a greater risk of water stress for major Kharif crops, including sugarcane, rice, cotton and maize, which could increase irrigation demand. It also warned of a wider spread of vector-borne diseases such as dengue, and highlighted the risk of strong winds, dust storms and hailstorms that may damage seasonal crops, vegetables and orchards. Farmers were advised to take protective steps for standing crops.

The PMD further said above-normal temperatures across the country suggest intermittent heat stress could develop during the season, especially in the plains of southern Punjab and Sindh. Normal to slightly above-normal rainfall in the northern high mountain areas may help moderate and limit the intensity of heatwave conditions there.

In its report, the department also advised precautionary measures in urban areas and for energy infrastructure.

“Given the recent increase in windstorm events, it is advisable that billboards in major urban areas be either removed or securely reinstalled with enhanced protection to withstand severe wind conditions,” the PMD report stated. “Similarly, proactive measures should be taken to protect solar energy structures to minimise the risk of damage during such events.”