Pakistan is set to experience a weak La Niña phase in November and December, with expectations of below-normal rainfall and higher-than-usual temperatures in some regions, according to the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA).
Tayyab Shah, the NDMA’s Director of Risk Management, explained that this La Niña event is anticipated to last for three to four months, bringing drier conditions than usual, especially between November and January. Shah stated that central regions like Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Kashmir will see less rainfall, while winter rains and snowfall will mostly be limited to northern areas of the country.
Temperatures in Punjab are expected to remain normal, while the northern, southern, and western parts of Pakistan are likely to experience above-average temperatures. Between December and April, cold winds will sweep into Pakistan, lowering humidity levels. This shift in seasonal patterns suggests that winter is likely to peak in late January, rather than in December.
The NDMA also forecasted that snowfall in regions like Gilgit-Baltistan, Chitral, and upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa will be 5–7% below average, potentially affecting glacier health and water availability for the summer of 2026.
Limited snowfall in the southern and western parts of the country, particularly in Sindh and Balochistan, could lead to drought-like conditions. However, the presence of 2025’s monsoon rains and sufficient dam storage is expected to prevent a major water crisis.
The NDMA’s warning comes just days after the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) ruled out the possibility of the coldest winter this year, predicting only minor winter waves due to western winds. Experts explain that La Niña, caused by an abnormal drop in sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, can disrupt global weather patterns, often resulting in extreme temperature shifts.
