Astronomers are closely monitoring Asteroid 2024 YR4 after new findings suggest it could produce the most powerful lunar impact ever observed if it collides with the Moon in 2032.
Although researchers say the likelihood of such an event is small, the potential consequences are drawing significant attention because of both the scientific value and the limited risks involved.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered in December 2024 by the ATLAS telescope system in Chile and is estimated to be about 60 metres in diameter. Initial assessments raised concerns about a possible Earth impact, but further analysis by NASA, supported by observations from the James Webb Space Telescope, ruled out that scenario.
Updated orbital calculations now indicate a 4% chance that the asteroid could strike the Moon on December 22, 2032.
If a collision occurs, scientists estimate it would release energy equivalent to around 6.5 megatons of TNT, making it far more powerful than any previously recorded lunar impact. The strike could carve out a crater roughly one kilometre wide and trigger a moonquake with an estimated magnitude of five.
Researchers say the impact could also eject large amounts of lunar material into space, some of which may reach Earth and produce intense meteor showers visible across multiple continents.
While experts stress that the event would pose little direct danger to people on Earth, they have flagged potential risks to satellites operating in orbit.
Despite these concerns, scientists view the possible impact as a rare research opportunity that could significantly advance understanding of impact physics, lunar geology and the Moon’s internal structure. Infrared instruments could track how molten rock cools after the collision, while seismometers may reveal how shock waves travel through the Moon.
