If the Trump Administration-inspired trade wars, which have literally fractured the WTO regime within the period of a calendar year, were not enough to sow chaos in the unipolar world, the January 3 midnight operation by the US Special Forces ‘Delta Force’ to get the Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife quite unceremoniously like criminals had in fact changed the definition of what can be termed as a new global geopolitical “New Normal”.
The IDF counteroffensive lin Gaza after 7 October 2023 left nothing intact with reference to the dictates of the so-called Geneva convention in any conflict. True, there have been instances of inadvertent omissions by the armed forces the world over; however, the one-and-a-half-year-old conflict witnessed deliberate razing to the ground, residential complexes, hospitals and any other human dwelling. Given the fact that all the front-line bombers used by the Israeli air arm are US-built, specifically by Lockheed Corporation, F-16s and F-35s. That silent approval, rather sustained supplies, meant the USA agreed with the IDF over goals.
Whatever might be the scenarios in place for the region now or the intended ones in weeks to come, the job to finish the republic will be a desperate one and a planned one too. This time, the reformist government very much bows to the supreme leader and the IRGC. The way the forex crisis was dealt with, a quick change in the management of the Iranian central bank, the sitting government negotiating with the currency market stakeholders, all point out cautiously to the lessons learnt by the Iranians
In contrast to that, the USA has been very particular about whether its supplied gadgetry has been used according to the mandate or not. In a snub to the then Ayub government in the then United Pakistan; in an internal memo circulated by the Intelligence directorate to the relevant stakeholders within the Johnson Administration dated 21 July 1965, the US policymakers took offence at what they called the Pakistani armed forces’ refusal to take part in the Indo China conflict, siding with the leftist Sukarno government; supplying the Indonesian Air force with C-130 spares and possibly using the US-supplied weapons systems in the Rann of Kuch campaign in April 1965. In the case of the IDF the US government and the law makers preferred to look the other way; conveniently.
The IDF Hamas model as encouraged by the US government was first replicated, though unsuccessfully in the Operation Sindoor. The Indian conflict timeline has been generally marked with even a lukewarm adherence to the Geneva convention; even in the recent conflicts like Kargil, or Swift Retort, where the targets were seemingly military. The Sindoor operation was a radical departure from the usual Indo-Pakistani protocol. The targeting of the seminaries and even individual places of worship was never the part of engagements between the two states. If the 1965 and 1971 conflicts were in the days of unguided ammunition where chances of error remain, the year 2025 was in the era of guided ammunition; with no room for doubt or omission regarding the entity which committed aggression.
Likewise, in the week just passed there has been a drone strike on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s residence in Moscow, which raised eyebrows at that point of time. However, the Venezuelan drama where the US/CIA moles within the military allowed the Chinooks to have their way right to the Presidential palace has thrown the world into an unprecedented situation. A constitutional postmortem of the situation shows that the President is abducted while the state he has headed as an administrator is not occupied; a legal lacuna if debated in the international legal circles. That same contradiction might be the subject of the value judgement for the international forums, like the UNO or the ICJ.
Practically, the intervention in Venezuela looks like an updated version of the 1953 coup in Iran which ousted the pre-1979 nationalist Head of the Government, Mohammad Mossadeq, as the issues under discussion were the same: the availability of oil reserves. It may be pertinent to note that as of now the Venezuelan proven oil reserves are the most in the world, followed by Saudi Arabia and Iran.
In both cases the CIA was the main culprit, in Tehran of August 1953 financing small time clergy and the ‘Mulla Muzaffar (analogy for street strong-arms) for fomenting unrest in the capital; in the case of Caracas, ensuring the air defence, radar and interceptors were neutralized well in time to allow the CIA and the Delta Force do its job. In 1953, the USA restored the Shah for the British oil interests; in the case of the strike on January 3 (the same date the former victims, Iranians, remember for the assassination of IRGC chief Maj Gen Qasem Soleimani in 2020) the USA did not even show any regard to the international law and acted recklessly. In fact, the two January 3 scenarios are unique in the sense in the 2020, a serving officer on the government of Iran payroll was killed, while in 2026 here the top executive of the government was unceremoniously abducted.
But where the world is headed? Flight radar scans indicate a flurry of USAF flight refueling tankers, available for reconnaissance jets or for the ones likely to take part in the strike packages, seconded by the RAF operating from its forward base in Cyprus. In another war theatre, India does not seem to let go the aggressive momentum it flared up intentionally in October 2025 with PM Modi on board INS Vikrant with new NOTAMS near the Pakistani border and the missile launches along the Orrisa/Odisha coastline close to Bangladesh. Here it is worth mentioning to state that these developments are not for any electoral exercise, rather look like exploitation of an international trend for one’s own gain.
Given the strong indications that an attack on the Islamic Republic is in the new year itinerary of both the IDF and the CENTCOM/USAF, the threats of Trump himself acting in defence of the Iranian people’s democratic rights all indicate that any charge from drugs to human rights to terrorism (the last named a very vague term for anyone to exploit) can be the punchline for the ‘new normal’ or a very disorderly new world order as defined by the Trump Administration. The new normal being a pretext to launch aggression on any ‘noncomplying state’.
In the developing scenario, the intended strikes might not be the ones undertaken in isolation with only the moles in Iranian society, but those in the military and polity to be activated, as Caracas was on a coastline, while similar kidnappings in Tehran can be a difficult ball game. Here it may be pointed out that the Tabas attack on 27 April 1980, US Embassy Hostage release bid, was an early version of the operation now wished; at that time the air defence batteries were removed around the main installations for facilitating the USAF CH 54 Super Stallion helicopters. The confusion created by the seasonal windstorm saved the day for the Iranians, by bringing bthe helicopters down.
At that time in 1980 the IRGC was not calling the shots. Now the situation has changed radically 45 years fast forward. In a practical scenario, any such Delta force incursion from any neighbouring state will incur a long helicopter flight into mainland Iran. Only Azerbaijan can be of some benefit for the Americans as well as the IDF.
Whatever might be the scenarios in place for the region now or the intended ones in weeks to come, the job to finish the republic will be a desperate one and a planned one too. This time, the reformist government very much bows to the supreme leader and the IRGC. The way the forex crisis was dealt with, a quick change in the management of the Iranian central bank, the sitting government negotiating with the currency market stakeholders, all point out cautiously to the lessons learnt by the Iranians.
Anyhow the world sits with crossed fingers for what is in store for them; an agent provocateur attack signified as a human rights episode or a repeat of last year’s June 13 strikes, remains to be seen; in Tehran or elsewhere!
