This is no ordinary trade negotiation— it is a hybrid moment of reckoning, where geology meets geopolitics and minerals morph into muscle. Pakistan’s rare earth deposits, long buried and overlooked, are emerging as decisive assets in a world locked in technological rivalry and tariff warfare.
These are not just rocks in the ground— they are leverage in the corridors of global power, fueling everything from smartphones to satellites, electric vehicles to advanced weaponry. As the USA seeks to decouple from China’s mineral dominance, Islamabad has a fleeting yet formidable opportunity: to anchor a hybrid trade strategy that marries domestic value addition with long-term, regulated access for partners. Done right, this could elevate Pakistan from a passive supplier to a strategic co-architect of tomorrow’s industrial order— not a concession state, but a catalytic one.
Balancing geopolitical leverage and economic sovereignty in a world racing for critical minerals is no longer a luxury— it is a necessity for Pakistan. In an era defined by tariff wars, technological supremacy, and shifting global alliances, rare earth elements have become the new oil. Pakistan, endowed with vast mineral potential, must craft a hybrid model that does not just invite investment but ensures value remains within its borders. The choice before Pakistan is stark: either emerge as a strategic partner embedded in global supply chains on its own terms— or be relegated once again to the periphery as a raw resource exporter. These trade talks with the USA. must reflect not only urgency, but wisdom rooted in national interest and long-term sovereignty.
A rare opportunity is unfolding in today’s Pakistan–US negotiations, with Pakistan’s vast mineral wealth— especially rare earth elements— emerging as its strongest bargaining chip. Long suppressed by outdated policies, lack of infrastructure, and underinvestment, the country now stands at a critical geopolitical and economic crossroads. The growing global demand for alternative sources of critical minerals, particularly amid the West’s push to reduce dependence on China, has thrust Pakistan’s subterranean assets into the global spotlight. As highlighted by Pakistan’s finance minister during ongoing high-level meetings in Washington, the US delegation isn’t just interested in ironing out tariff barriers— they’re actively exploring options to access Pakistan’s troves of rare earth minerals like copper, lithium, and other critical elements.
These developments follow commitments made at the Islamabad Minerals Forum earlier this year, which framed Pakistan not merely as an extraction site but as a strategic node in the reshaping global resource economy. It is imperative, then, that this moment of opportunity be treated with sophisticated foresight, not transactional compromise.
Yet the question before Pakistan isn’t just geological— it is fundamentally structural, political, and ideological. In a world where raw material exporters are too often reduced to low-value, dependent partners, Pakistan must categorically reject that path. The country must insist on local value addition as a non-negotiable term of any bilateral trade arrangement. As Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif emphasized at the Pakistan Minerals Investment Forum, simply exporting raw materials does not translate into meaningful economic development. Instead, the emphasis must be on building mineral processing, refining, and even manufacturing facilities on Pakistani soil. This shift not only retains jobs and industrial momentum domestically but also positions Pakistan as an equal stakeholder in the global supply chain, rather than a passive supplier.
In return for tariff reliefs or investment incentives, the USA must be made to commit to co-developing infrastructure, technology transfer, and skills training that enable Pakistan to climb up the value chain. This is not merely about minerals; it’s about reclaiming autonomy in global trade narratives and correcting the colonial logic that keeps resource-rich countries poor.
However, the realization of this vision hinges entirely on Pakistan’s ability to demonstrate credibility and consistency in governance. For far too long, policy fragmentation has plagued the mineral and natural resource sectors. With responsibilities scattered among federal, provincial, and regional bodies— often with contradictory mandates— foreign investors remain uncertain, and strategic coordination remains elusive.
A preferential tariff or market access agreement must be tethered to substantive commitments: infrastructure investments, local industrial participation, technological transfer, and sovereign control. Only then can Pakistan rise from being a mere commodity supplier to a strategic stakeholder in global trade, regional relations, and the emerging tech-driven power order of the 21st century.
Unless Pakistan delivers on the long-promised unified mineral policy framework— announced with much fanfare in April’s forum— and backs it with strong enforcement mechanisms, the entire promise of mineral-fueled resurgence will remain a mirage. The Federal Board of Revenue’s moves towards tax base broadening and digitization are welcome, but these systemic improvements must go hand-in-hand with investor-focused reforms such as streamlined approvals, one-window operations, and transparent fiscal regimes specific to mining operations. Without such coherence, even the most favourable trade terms with the USA will fall short of their transformative potential.
On the US side, the interest is palpable but tempered with caution. The USA has recently signed critical minerals agreements with countries like Ukraine and Brazil, and views Pakistan’s mineral deposits as a crucial missing link in securing non-Chinese supply chains. Yet this strategic interest will be married to commercial pragmatism. US firms and policymakers will demand clear legal protections for investments, limits on state interference, repatriation rights, and dispute resolution frameworks based on international arbitration. This is where Pakistan must neither capitulate nor obstruct, but rather adopt a hybrid model— one that merges global investor confidence with sovereign developmental imperatives. Granting long-term mining rights can be acceptable, but only when accompanied by stipulations on domestic value retention, worker rights, environmental oversight, and a guaranteed minimum of 30 percent local equity participation. Such a model, already being explored by nations like Chile and Indonesia, offers a path where economic development and strategic sovereignty are not mutually exclusive, but mutually reinforcing.
The political timing could not be more delicate— or more advantageous. The thawing of relations between Washington and Islamabad, notably visible in the recent goodwill between Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and senior Trump-era officials such as Marco Rubio, opens a window of opportunity. The Guardian rightly notes that this warming trend has raised eyebrows in India, signaling the geopolitical stakes surrounding the negotiations.
Pakistan must tread carefully here— welcoming US attention while avoiding overdependence on the whims of a particular administration. The lessons of history, especially the cold withdrawal post-Afghanistan, should not be forgotten. Therefore, Pakistan should anchor any deal in robust, institutional mechanisms: bilateral investment treaties, technology-sharing protocols, joint ventures governed by local labour laws, and recourse through international arbitration mechanisms. A personality-driven approach may win short-term gains, but only a treaty-based approach will ensure long-term resilience.
No discussion on mineral wealth can overlook the precarious security context, particularly in Balochistan where a large portion of these resources are located. The province has suffered years of insurgency, grievances, and deadly attacks on both domestic and foreign investment projects. The failure of successive governments to address the socio-economic alienation of the Baloch people continues to threaten all development goals. Any resource-driven growth strategy must begin with trust-building, local inclusion, environmental sensitivity, and above all, a transparent, demilitarized investment security framework. If Pakistan hopes to attract serious US investment in high-stakes mining projects, it must demonstrate that workers, engineers, and infrastructure can be protected— through intelligence and community participation, not just coercive policing.
This sense of urgency is underscored by the high stakes tied to rare earth minerals themselves— materials that fuel the backbone of the 21st-century tech economy. Global technology giants like Apple, Tesla, and Samsung, along with defence heavyweights such as Lockheed Martin and Raytheon, are heavily reliant on elements like neodymium, dysprosium, terbium, and praseodymium. These are not esoteric compounds— they power taptic engines in iPhones, magnets in electric vehicle motors, phosphors in high-resolution screens, and advanced targeting systems in F‑35 fighter jets. As China continues to tighten its grip over global rare earth supplies, Western companies are now paying premiums of up to $30 per kg for non-Chinese sources. In this context, Pakistan’s rare earth potential— if developed under a stable, transparent, and mutually beneficial framework— could become an indispensable asset for international manufacturers. The country has the rare opportunity not just to extract wealth, but to embed itself within global supply chains that are reshaping the contours of modern industry and security.
In sum, Pakistan must approach these talks with unwavering clarity, institutional resolve, and a long-term developmental lens. The nation’s mineral wealth is more than a resource— it’s a generational opportunity to restructure its economic foundations. But unless trade deals are embedded within a robust hybrid model—one that ensures equitable profit-sharing, mandates domestic value addition, and guarantees investor confidence through legal and security assurances— Islamabad risks conceding its future for transient gains.
A preferential tariff or market access agreement must be tethered to substantive commitments: infrastructure investments, local industrial participation, technological transfer, and sovereign control. Only then can Pakistan rise from being a mere commodity supplier to a strategic stakeholder in global trade, regional relations, and the emerging tech-driven power order of the 21st century.
