AT PENPOINT
The ceasefire announced by President Donald Trump was apparently a way of getting out of what had so far been an air campaign that seemed to have no end, because Iran seemed unable, in the words of Emperor Hirohito when announcing Japan’s surrender at the end of World War II,’ to bear the unbearable and endure the unendurable.’
The only previous example of a successful air war was the Kosovo War of 1999, when NATO, led by the USAF, bombed Serbia ‘into the Stone Age’ (in the phrase used memorably on Pakistan’s President Pervez Musharraf after 9/11) to make it give independence to Albanian-majority Kosovo. It proved long, expensive, and taxing for both planes and pilots.
Trump found that the USA was heading in that direction. World War II could conceivably have gone in that direction, if the Japanese had somehow absorbed the nuclear bombs at Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and the USA had been forced to do what it wanted to avoid, a costly grind up the Japanese islands with conventional forces.
Iran’s response to the bombing was evidence that it intended to go for the long haul. It had no ability to strike at the US mainland, so it lobbed missiles at the US air base in Qatar. Trump said there had not even been any injury, let alone loss of life, a claim not contradicted by the Iranians. Still, this raises the prospect of US facilities in the region, both civil and military, being subjected to attack. It would not have been the attacks that mattered, so much as the need to take anti-aircraft measures. That would have acted as a delaying factor in almost any activity that was contemplated.
The ceasefire has generally been welcomed by the world, mainly because of the fear that the Strait of Hormuz could be blocked by Iran. So much of the world’s daily crude oil consumption, 18 percent, passes through it, that any blockage would cause a worldwide shortage within days. Again, any defensive measures would also act as retardants.
However, the whole episode has left the USA to deal with the consequences of the rebelliousness of its regional proxy, Israel. The conflict was related to the Israeli invasion of Gaza, which was initially supported by the USA, and is still supported by its establishment, but started causing concern, especially among students, when it degenerated into the killing of civilians. There are increasing doubts in Israel itself, with a recent demonstration in support of the hostages Hamas still holds prisoner.
One problem is that, Israeli and US claims notwithstanding, there is no guarantee that Iran cannot resume its nuclear enrichment programme. That enrichment was at the root of the problem. Israeli claims that Iran is months away from a nuclear weapon, which Netanyahu has made for two decades now, are still there, because now the focus is some supposed 20 kg of enriched uranium, which should provide a certain number of bombs. Israel is apparently preserving this as an excuse for some future attack.
Israel should not be as opposed to Iran as it is, because it was the Achaemenid Cyrus the Great who ended the Babylonian captivity of the Jews after he conquered the Neo-Babylonian Empire, which had originally conquered the Kingdom of Judah and sent its people into captivity. Though archeologists have shown that the exile was by no means complete, it remains a seminal event in Jewish history.
The problem thus seems to be reduced to the fact that the Iranians are Muslims. Because they are not Arab, they do not see the Palestinian cause as a purely Arab cause, but as one crucial to the Ummah as a whole, because of Jerusalem and Al-Aqsa. This is a sentiment shared by the Muslims of the Subcontinent, who after all were converted to Islam by Sufis who came to the Subcontinent through Iran. For Arabs, the religious issue is present, but it is overlaid by the Arab solidarity thing. The Palestinian cause coincided with the rise of Arab socialism, but as Arab socialism receded so did support from the Palestinian cause, to the extent that Iran became its main supporter. Arabs withdrew from the Palestinian cause as a means of costing up to the USA, which has required a recognition of Israel among other things. Ians have thus looked increasingly to Iran for help. Even Hamas, whose ideological cognates are anti-Shia, mostly under Saudi influence, have turned to it for support. While it has the moral support of the entire Ummah, the Arab stages are not offering anything beyond words at the moment.
Pakistan is thus forced to rely on itself, and to an extent on the fellow Muslim countries which helped them in the last crisis. However, it should remember that friends like Turkey are in the US camp, and there is no point embarrassing them before the event.
As it is, the Arab states have hardly covered themselves in glory. While Israel has been massacring Palestinians, there has been precious little done by the Arab states. Though there has been a rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, as well as between the PLO which rules in the West Bank and Hamas, which rules in the Gaza Strip. Both brokered by China, there seems to have been little effect, which has given the USA enough tension to join in the intervention against Iran.
Pakistan has found itself on a learning curve. The first lesson is not to rely too much on airpower. Israel and the USA did, but failed to ensure that Iran’s nuclear capability is destroyed forever. The second lesson is that India will now target Pakistan’s nuclear capability. It will try to draw the USA in.
This is not something that can be brushed aside by building trade relations with the USA, because India has something that Trump values, which Pakistan does not have, which is a votebank which can be delivered, in the form of BJP supporters who have obtained green cards or even US citizenship, but who go back to India at election time to support the BJP. Pakistan should recognize that it cannot compete, mainly because it has no party like the BJP, which is the party of choice for the average Non-Resident Indian. There is the PTI, and that might be its path to returning to favour. Even then, the Pakistani diaspora being smaller than the Indian, this is not a very fruitful avenue.
Pakistan is thus forced to rely on itself, and to an extent on the fellow Muslim countries which helped them in the last crisis. However, it should remember that friends like Turkey are in the US camp, and there is no point embarrassing them before the event.
