The prospect of movement in the intra-Afghan talks at Doha was held out by the Taliban when their spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid said that the Taliban would present a written peace plan to the Afghan government. He said that the talks would pick up pace in a month. This would indicate that the pressure applied to the Taliban by Pakistan has finally had some effect, and the Taliban are finally willing to agree to some sort of process by which some post-withdrawal settlement could be arrived at.
The agreement may not appear very great, but it is, because the Taliban have an interest in delaying the talks as long as the military momentum favours them. As a rule of thumb, they are advancing in the countryside, and the retreat of more than 1000 Kabul troops into Tajikistan highlighted this, while it highlighted the Taliban gains in Badakhshan province. It must be remembered that the respective strengths at the negotiating tables will depend on the positions on the battlefield, and while they seem to be an advantage militarily, it would be in the Taliban’s interest to delay negotiations.
However, the sop held out another Taliban spokesman, Sohail Shaheen, that the Taliban did not include the taking of Kabul as one of their military aims, was an indication that it did not intend the overthrow of the Kabul government, thus increasing its incentive to engage constructively in talks.
His disclaimer of any intention against diplomats or NGOs was also meant to get the USA to be ready to reduce the forces it would leave behind to protect its diplomats and to keep Kabul Airport open. His saying that any military personnel, left behind after the announced deadline of September 11, would be at risk as occupiers, indicated that the Taliban did not want any loophole allowing for foreign forces to protect the Kabul government. There has been precious little progress in the recent past, and thus this is to be welcomed, but it should be realized that all the parties have a considerable distance to travel, and thus this be regarded as nothing more than what it is: a beginning.
