NDMA forecasts colder nights, near-normal rainfall and rising smog risks

• National watchdog says Siberian winds to intensify winter across northern and central Pakistan
• Predicts southern and western regions may face below-average rainfall, mild drought
• Says snowfall in Gilgit-Baltistan, Chitral, and upper KP likely slightly below normal
• Says Punjab’s smog belt to see hazardous AQI levels exceeding 400

ISLAMABAD: The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has projected near-normal rainfall and colder nights across Pakistan over the next three to four months, warning that southern and western regions—particularly Balochistan and Sindh—may face below-average rainfall and potential drought conditions.

Briefing the media on Wednesday, NDMA’s Senior Disaster Risk Assessment expert Dr. Tayyeb Shah said that by the end of November, cold Siberian winds would begin to intensify winter in northern and central Pakistan, pushing temperatures down and marking a gradual seasonal shift.

He said temperatures in the plains and southern regions were expected to remain near normal, while northern areas would experience severe cold by December. As the Siberian High strengthens, colder air masses will move deep into the country, extending winter’s duration and intensity.

According to Dr. Shah, snowfall this season is projected to remain slightly below normal, particularly in Gilgit-Baltistan, Chitral, and upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Light early snowfall may occur in October, followed by more consistent accumulation from mid-November to December.

He cautioned that reduced snow cover could impact glacier health and summer water availability in 2026, though no major downstream shortage is anticipated due to adequate monsoon reservoir storage.

The mountainous districts of Kohistan, Mansehra, Swat, Diamir, Astore, Nagar, and Neelum remain moderately vulnerable to landslides, the NDMA said. Residual monsoon moisture combined with freeze–thaw cycles could trigger localized slope failures, potentially disrupting key routes such as the Karakoram Highway and Neelum Valley Road.

The authority stressed the need for sustained monitoring and early warning systems along vulnerable corridors to protect communities and transport infrastructure.

In southern Pakistan, particularly southwestern Balochistan and parts of Sindh, the NDMA warned of mild to moderate meteorological drought due to prolonged dryness and heavy reliance on groundwater. Chagai, Nushki, Panjgur, and Gwadar have been identified as drought hotspots.

While northern regions are expected to remain near normal, the NDMA urged proactive drought resilience measures, including groundwater management and climate-smart agriculture, to safeguard rural livelihoods.

Smog Projection

The NDMA identified smog as the most critical seasonal hazard for late 2025. From October through December, Punjab’s industrial and agricultural belt—including Lahore, Faisalabad, Sheikhupura, Gujranwala, and Multan—is expected to experience moderate to dense smog, with Air Quality Index (AQI) levels possibly exceeding 400 (hazardous).

Smog formation will intensify during November and December, driven by temperature inversion, calm winds, high humidity, and the buildup of pollutants. Urban centres in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, particularly the Peshawar Valley, may also witness low to moderate smog episodes.

Authorities have urged strict enforcement of emission controls, regulation of crop residue burning, and public awareness campaigns to reduce health and transport disruptions during the high-risk period.