That Pakistan is now bombing Kabul is a strange turn of events. No one imagined it possible after the fall of Kabul only in 2021, when the Taliban took back power after having been ousted two decades before. The Taliban had been hand-in-glove with the Pakistani establishment from its founding in 1993, and it was expected that the new Kabul government would be friendlier to Pakistan than the previous one. However, things soured, and it became increasingly clear that the Afghan Taliban did not share the same goals. Most contentious was their support for the Tehrik Taliban Pakistan, which allowed the latter safe havens for their fighters. They used these to launch attacks on Pakistan, and used captured US arms, abandoned as US troops precipitately left Afghanistan, and given the TTP. TTP complicity with The Baloch Liberation Army and India’s Research and Analysis Wing was shown during the Jaffer Express outrage in Balochistan, but there are reports of infighting as well. However, the last straw for Pakistan was the recent clash in Orakzai district, formerly a tribal area, which saw 11 Armymen martyred, including a lieutenant-colonel and a major, while 19 militants were killed. It is something of a coincidence that Afghan acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi left for New Delhi that day, and that TTP leader Wali Mahsud was in Kabul. India does not recognize the Taliban government.
The attack should also be seen in the light of the US-China global rivalry. US President Donald Trump recently expressed an interest in retaking Kabul’s Bagram Airbase, and has also been pulling back from the Indian alliance and warming up to Pakistan. At the same time, the USA cannot look with equanimity on the Chinese plans, still far from fruition, if obtaining rare-earths and other minerals essential to modern hi-tech. Pakistan has its own agenda, but this attack fits in with the USA’s. Within the Afghan-Pakistan context, to the dispute over the Durand Line, which goes back to 1893, has been added the refugee return issue, with Pakistan insisting that Afghanistan accept back its citizens, and Afghanistan reluctant.
The Taliban rulers of Afghanistan can either accept that their support of the TTP cannot be prolonged, especially now that terrorism has been converted into waging war, as it has been doing for some time, or it can prepare to be pounded further. It should keep in mind that the British, the Soviets and the Americans, were all foreign forces, fighting in an alien land, while the Pakistan armed forces are at home, entrenched among their own people.
