Cotton stakeholders challenge FCA estimates for 2026-27 output

LAHORE: Cotton sector stakeholders have raised questions over the Federal Committee on Agriculture’s production estimates for the 2026-27 season, saying the projected provincial yields do not match historical patterns and on-ground conditions.

The concerns centre on the FCA’s assessment that Sindh’s per-acre cotton yield will be markedly higher than that of both Punjab and Balochistan, even though, according to stakeholders, Balochistan has historically posted the country’s highest yields. Ehsanul Haq, chairman of the Cotton Ginners Forum, said the committee — an attached body of the Ministry of National Food Security and Research — had again issued projections he described as unrealistic for national cotton production and provincial output.

Provincial projections questioned

Under the FCA’s estimates for crop year 2026-27, Pakistan’s cotton output has been put at 9.643 million bales. The committee has projected cotton cultivation in Punjab on 3.2 million acres, with production of five million bales and an average yield of 1.60 bales per acre.

For Sindh, the FCA has estimated cotton cultivation over 1.486 million acres and production of 4.042 million bales, with an average yield of 2.72 bales per acre. Balochistan, meanwhile, has been projected to cultivate cotton on 604,250 acres, with an average yield of one bale per acre.

Mr Haq said these figures were far removed from ground realities. He argued that Balochistan has consistently delivered the highest cotton yield per acre in Pakistan because of favourable weather conditions, lower environmental pollution and limited cultivation of sugarcane.

He also said cotton grown in Balochistan is considered superior in quality, with its lint selling at Rs500 to Rs700 more per maund than cotton produced in Punjab and Sindh. He added that cottonseed and cottonseed oil from the province also command higher market prices.

Concerns over forecasting record

According to Mr Haq, the committee’s latest estimates imply that Sindh’s average yield would be 63 per cent higher than Balochistan’s and 41pc higher than Punjab’s. He said such projections were difficult to reconcile with the sector’s experience and past production trends.

He also criticised the FCA’s previous forecasting performance. He said the committee had fixed a national cotton production target of 10.18 million bales for 2025-26, including 5.553 million bales for Punjab and 4.042 million bales for Sindh. However, he said actual national production in that season came to 5.524 million bales, of which Punjab produced 2.718 million bales and Sindh 2.807 million bales.

Mr Haq said the gap between official projections and actual output showed the need for more realistic assessments. He urged the FCA to rely on field-based evaluations rather than what he called drawing-room estimates, warning that inaccurate figures could hurt Pakistan’s credibility in international markets and complicate planning for procurement, imports, exports and broader marketing decisions for cotton stakeholders.