Closing in on a deal

The USA has not got anything out of its adventure in Iran

At the time of writing, the deal to end the US-Iran War had not been signed, but it was all but over, bar the shouting. The details of the deal which is to be struck between the USA and Iran have filtered into the press, and are remarkably similar to the initial proposals, indicating that the current deal has only been reached because it is equally unwanted by both. However, ultimately, the deal was reached because the pressure on the two sides was too much for them to stand.

For all his vaunted prowess as a deal-maker, it seems US President Donald Trump has managed to get the USA exactly nothing. The great achievement of the deal is the reopening of the Hormuz Strait. While that is no doubt an achievement, it only restores the position of where it was before the war. While one positive effect will be the reduction in oil prices globally, grain harvests around the world will tell whether the Strait opened in time for fertilizer to reach farmers in time. How much time, and how much inflation, the world will have to face before it shakes off the effects of this disruption is yet to be seen. However, it may have just arrived in time for the US midterm polls. In fact, those polls may have determined Mr Trump’s decision to seal the deal. It seems that the US electorate will penalize the government for their suffering. The USA has merely managed to bring Iran back to the negotiating table, with a 60-day deadline to decide on what to do about the nuclear programme, and its enriched uranium stock.

The elephant in the room will be Israel. The USA has not achieved its strategic objectives, but has decided to move on. Israel has also not achieved its objectives, particularly with respect to Hezbollah and Lebanon, but has not indicated reconciliation to this. It may be remembered that in 2024 Israel attacked Iran when its nuclear talks with the USA were getting somewhere. If not now, it may try in the future to try to upset the applecart. It has shown that it is useless to expect the USA to exercise any restraint on it. However, that is for the future, and at the moment, the world looks forward to peace in the Hormuz Strait.