Analysts say GB poll echoed 2024 general election pattern

ISLAMABAD: Political analysts have described the Gilgit-Baltistan elections as broadly resembling the 2024 general elections, arguing that a major party was effectively pushed out of the contest while the Pakistan Peoples Party's victory still amounted to a win for a party aligned with the ruling coalition at the Centre.

According to a report by The Express Tribune, the PTI, JUI-F and the victorious PPP all raised concerns over the conduct of the election. Most observers said the poll followed a pattern similar to last year's national vote. They said the outcome should also worry the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), as it pointed to a level of public dissatisfaction in Gilgit-Baltistan that they said was in line with wider sentiment in the country.

Analysts said PTI was excluded from the electoral process and that extensive efforts were made to ensure that outcome. At the same time, they maintained that once PTI's absence was factored in, the final result largely matched the underlying popularity of the remaining parties in Gilgit-Baltistan.

Survey and political pattern

Pildat President Ahmad Bilal Mehboob said a pre-election survey in Gilgit-Baltistan had placed PTI as the most popular party, followed by PPP and then PML-N. He said the final outcome generally aligned with that ranking once PTI was removed from the field. "If PTI is removed from the equation, the election results are broadly consistent with the survey findings. However, excluding the most popular party and then calling the elections fair would be nonsensical," he said.

Mehboob also linked the result to Gilgit-Baltistan's electoral history, saying the party in power at the Centre has usually gone on to secure a majority in the region. He said PPP's success did not break that pattern because it remains part of the federal ruling coalition and holds important ministries.

"Even in this case, the PPP, which is part of the ruling coalition at the Centre and holds key portfolios, emerged victorious. To claim that these results have broken the tradition of the ruling party winning in G-B is a laughable proposition," he remarked.

Questions over political understanding

Political analyst Rasul Bakhsh Rais said the result appeared to fit into a wider political understanding between the major ruling parties. He referred to unresolved matters between PPP and PML-N, including the NFC Award, and said it was possible PPP's dominance in Gilgit-Baltistan formed part of a broader arrangement.

"There are unresolved issues between the PPP and PML-N, including the NFC Award. It is possible that allowing the PPP to dominate in G-B was part of a political arrangement. Both parties are in power, and an election victory for either effectively means a government aligned with the federal setup," he said.

Rais added that PPP currently appeared closer to the power centre than PML-N and said the election had not produced any new political trend in Gilgit-Baltistan.

PML-N urged to reflect

Former caretaker Punjab chief minister and political commentator Hasan Askari Rizvi said the result should prompt serious reflection within the PML-N, which heads the federal government.

"If the PML-N believes these were entirely fair elections, it has some serious introspection to do," he said. "The sentiment witnessed in Gilgit-Baltistan is reflective of broader public sentiment across the country. The PPP, despite being part of the government, has managed to distance itself from governance failures and shift much of the blame onto the PML-N."