Trump’s rifts with allies may outlast Iran war, analysts say

WASHINGTON: President Donald Trump’s recent decisions on US troop deployments in Europe, his threats to reduce forces elsewhere on the continent and his response to attacks on a key Gulf partner have raised concerns that the most lasting consequence of the Iran war could be deeper strains with longstanding allies.

Even as Washington and Tehran move cautiously toward what could become an off-ramp, Trump’s conduct has renewed fears among allies in Europe, the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific that the United States may prove unreliable in a future crisis. Some traditional partners are beginning to adjust their policies in ways that could reshape ties with Washington over time, while China and Russia are seen as watching for strategic opportunities.

Analysts said it remains uncertain whether the war with Iran will become a lasting turning point in US relations with allies, but many believe Trump’s conduct since returning to office has further weakened confidence in the US-led order. Brett Bruen, a former Obama administration adviser who now heads the Situation Room strategic consultancy, said, "Trump’s recklessness with respect to Iran is resulting in some dramatic shifts. US credibility is at stake."

Tensions with European allies have intensified since Trump joined Israel in striking Iran on February 28, saying without evidence that Tehran was close to building a nuclear weapon. Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation triggered an unprecedented global energy shock, with European countries among the hardest-hit economies.

Trump had already unsettled allies by imposing broad tariffs, pressing to take over Greenland from Denmark and cutting military aid to Ukraine. The divide widened when he announced the withdrawal of 5,000 of the 36,400 US troops stationed in Germany after Chancellor Friedrich Merz publicly said the Iranians were humiliating the United States. The Pentagon also cancelled a planned deployment of Tomahawk cruise missiles to Germany.

Pressure on Nato allies

Trump, who has long questioned continued US participation in Nato, also said he was considering reducing troop levels in Italy and Spain, whose leaders have disagreed with him over the war. The move followed his accusations that allies had not done enough to support the United States and his suggestion that Washington might no longer need to honour Nato’s Article 5 mutual defence commitment.

White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said, "President Trump has made his disappointment with Nato and other allies clear. She said some requests to use military bases in Europe for the Iran war had been rejected by host governments. While defending Trump’s foreign policy, she added that he had restored America’s standing on the world stage and strengthened relationships abroad but will never allow the United States to be treated unfairly and taken advantage of by so-called ‘allies’ . Trump had earlier criticised British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, calling him in March not Winston Churchill and threatening a big tariff on British imports. The Pentagon had raised the possibility of punitive steps against Nato allies it believed had failed to support US operations against Iran, including suspending Spain’s membership and reviewing US recognition of Britain’s claim to the Falkland Islands. European governments, have responded by trying to deepen defence cooperation among themselves, increase their own military spending and jointly develop weapons systems to reduce dependence on the United States, while still attempting to persuade Trump of the value of transatlantic ties. One European diplomat described Trump’s threats as a clear signal for Europe to invest more in its own security, though the diplomat said leaders were resigned to managing the situation for now. Jeff Rathke, president of the American-German Institute at Johns Hopkins University, said that although Merz had appeared to build rapport with Trump in earlier meetings, he is not trying to hide the critical assessment of what the United States has gotten itself into . European officials have quietly pointed out that many countries are still allowing US forces to use bases and airspace during the Iran campaign. At the same time, some leaders are becoming more willing to challenge Trump directly. A European diplomat also said Trump, who cannot run again, may feel free to do whatever he thinks internationally before leaving office in January 2029. Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski told a conference in Warsaw there was no need to panic if Europe followed through on promised increases in military spending, something Trump has long demanded. Concerns spread beyond Europe The pressure on US alliances extends beyond Europe. When Iran launched missile and drone attacks on the United Arab Emirates this week, Trump and his aides appeared to downplay the incident, adding to unease in Gulf Arab states already affected by the war. Trump described Monday’s strike as minor, although it set the Fujairah oil port on fire and led the government to shut schools. Even after more attacks later in the week, he maintained that a month-old ceasefire remained in place. Trump entered the war despite the advice of some Gulf partners. Although those states later showed solidarity, some now fear he could eventually reach an agreement that leaves them facing a dangerous neighbour. Asian allies are also uneasy, especially countries dependent on oil that had moved freely through the Strait of Hormuz before the conflict. Japan and South Korea had already been unsettled by Trump’s tariffs and criticism of traditional alliances. Some may now question whether domestic economic pressure in the United States, including rising gasoline prices, could make Trump more hesitant to intervene in a conflict with China, including over Taiwan. Takeshi Iwaya, who served as Japan’s foreign minister at the start of Trump’s second term, told Reuters: What worries us most is that trust in, respect for, and expectations toward the US — the core partner in the alliance Japan values most — have been shrinking. It could cast a long shadow over the entire region."

Yasutoshi Nishimura, a former Japanese trade minister, said it had become increasingly important for Tokyo to adapt to changing global power dynamics by building closer ties with

like-minded middle powers

such as Britain, Canada, Australia and European countries.

Russia and China, both long-time partners of Iran, have largely stayed on the sidelines since the war began but are monitoring developments closely. Analysts warned that Trump’s use of force against Iran, coming only weeks after a US raid in Caracas that captured Venezuela’s president, could encourage China and Russia to intensify pressure on neighbouring states. Russia, has benefited from higher oil and gas prices caused by the Iran war and from the diversion of US and European attention away from Ukraine.