After India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty in May, following its blaming Pakistan without bothering to produce any evidence, it was pointed out that there was no provision for such a suspension, or for a withdrawal from it in any form. However, ever since, it has behaved as if the IWT had been abrogated. The problem has been that India has not specified how it intended relations with its lower riparian to be governed. The problem it faces is that the IWT did not really break new ground or make special provisions. It merely codified existing customary international law as applied to two states using a single river, and made it into a judicially enforceable mechanism.
The Pakistani fear that India would indulge in bad behaviour was justified during the monsoon, as India tried to change the flow of the Chenab by holding back its water and then releasing it, timing the release to coincide with the floods that were plaguing the country. Now India has engaged in an emptying of its Baglihar Dam hydropower project, and then refilling it, which again disrupted the water flow of the Chenab. This had led to the disruption of canal flows at the time of the sowing of the wheat crop, so vital to Pakistan’s food security. At the time of the suspension, it was noted that India would not be able to reduce the water flows without engaging in extensive construction for this purpose. However, it has now shown that it can make a nuisance of itself without this. It has further shown that it can disrupt Pakistan’s water supply at any season of the year. It has further shown that it has now weaponised water.
Perhaps the worst consequence of the suspension is that India has deprived itself of a vital line of communication. Pakistan will use the channel of the water commissioner, but that was an office empowered by the IWT. One reason for the suspension seems to have been the impunity that India has had from the international community, for the treaty is guaranteed by the World Bank. Indian refusal to accept any restraint on the waters it shares with Pakistan cannot be accepted by the comity of nations, though the world’s powers have only themselves to bl.ame for this, because their refusal to enforce internationa law in the case of the Kashmir dispute has led to India defying all norms. The IWT is not the only example. Murders and attempted muders in the USA and Canada are examples with the same root in Indian outlawry.
