“Some are in for money, some for gold, some for power and some are told, feral killing, bloodbaths of simple, innocent and helpless souls” —(Imama Sindho)
In Darfur, the Rapid Support Forces occupied El Fasher after a long siege, and the echoes of agony in Sudan grew deafening. As of November, the civil war is now entering its third year. This ongoing conflict between RSF and the Sudanese Armed Forces has claimed over 28,700 lives, counting 7,500 civilians in direct shootings, displacing 14 million people, almost 30 percent of the population, and causing 25 million to descend into starvation. In June 2024, the UN reported that nearly five million people were facing “emergency levels of food insecurity,” with over two million people in 41 specific “hunger hotspots” facing the most critical conditions.
Sudan bears the agony, but the world bears the responsibility. The tragedy is a moment of reflection for fragile nations, where political and military rivalries, economic distress, and ethnic fault lines could give rise to such incidents. Sudan’s conflict offers dire lessons: lawlessness and unaccountable power struggles destroy economies, spread across borders and requires proactive defence to avert calamity.
BURNING TURMOIL: SUDAN’S DESCENT INTO CHAOS
What started in April 2023 as rivalry between SAF and RSF led by Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo respectively has turned into a disrupted combat force. As of mid-2025 the RSF has seized much of Darfur and the west, while the SAF has assumed control of east and north, with insurgent groups such as the “Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North” supporting the RSF and others bolstering the SAF. The turning point was the fall of El Fasher in late October. RSF authorities, blamed for ethnic carnage akin to Rwanda’s first 24 hours, trapped millions in underground trenches during hospital bombing and blackouts.
Outside interference fuels the horror: arms from UAE flow to RSF through Libya and Chad, while Iran provides drones to the SAF, Russia deploys Wagner apparatuses for gold mines, and Ethiopia exploits LOC vacuums in Al Fashaga. Ceasefire attempts, like the Jeddah Declaration, failed as both parties strive for breakaway governments, SAF fights for a transitional Council versus the RSF Secular Charter in Nairobi. The outcome of this conflict are “forgotten atrocities”, with over 30 million needing support and famine warnings across the country.
ECONOMIC DISTRESS: A PATH TO CATASTROPHE
The civil war in Sudan has ruined its economy, giving a cautionary warning for developing economies. Consider the facts and figures: Sudan’s GDP contracted 29.45 percent in 2023 and another 14 percent in 2024, one of history’s biggest drops ever, led by Khartoum’s destruction/The same is the case with the services sector and trade paralysis. By the end of 2025, forecasts show a further 35-43 percent decline under moderate to extreme scenarios, as of July 2025 inflation was recorded at 78.4 percent and poverty rising to 64 percent. Oil production, once recorded as 10 percent of total GDP, decreased to half, Sudan’s lifeline gold exports crashed by RSF control of mines.
Trade corridors, playing a pivotal role for food imports (22 percent of goods), gold and livestock exports lie in ruins. Sudan’s ports, such as Port Sudan, were occupied by the SAF, however they were drone-bombed. The RSF, using Chad and Libya routes, engaged in fuel smuggling but choked formal commerce. Current account deficits had risen to 5.2 percent of GDP in the current year. Revenue collection declining from 10 percent to 4.87 percent of GDP, starving basic facilities.
For a country like Pakistan, reflecting Sudan’s oil dependency and border vulnerabilities, this shows how internal structures can trigger high inflation rates and dependency on aid, echoing Pakistan’s 2022 and 2025 flood and IMF bailouts.
In simple words Sudan is not another African civil war; but a profound warning to all the Muslims and Arabs that when civil institutions fail and militias are given the right to become similar forces, this results in destruction, poverty, hunger, and widespread violence even in large and strategically important countries. In October, 2025 the fall of El Fasher, the ethnic massacres recorded for propaganda, the economic implosion and deliberate bombing of a hospital, all reduced the oil production to the half and driven the more than half of the population in symptoms of the same diseases that has already affected Syria, Yemen and Libya.
CONTAGION RESPONSE: TRADE IN THE CROSSFIRE
This civil war doesn’t respect borders, it exports instability. More than 3.8 million refugees strain Chad; Chad is hosting 730,000 refugees, which results in diverting resources from poverty alleviation. While in South Sudan, 300,000 new refugees have arrived since January, worsening inflation and famine. The number of refugees in Chad is expected to hit 4.8 million by the end of this year. Ethiopia and Egypt suffer trade disruptions along the routes of the Nile and Red Sea, raising transportation costs by 20-30 percent and ruining cross border activities. Egypt’s water security is in great danger as Khartoum’s dam falters.
Internationally, Sudan counted as the world’s third largest producer of gold and gum (supplying 80 percent of the world’s production), the shortage of which hikes prices, affecting Pakistan’s confectionery imports and food inflation. Oil supply to China and India declines, impacting the energy market with lower supply and higher demand, resulting in price spikes.
UAE and KSA invested in ports evaporates, while Russia’s Wagner exploits mines for Wagner-linked revenues. For Pakistan, a fellow OIC member with historical ties (1,542 UN peacekeepers in Sudan), this warns of refugee surges from Afghanistan or Balochistan spilling over, and trade checkpoints like Gwadar echoing Port Sudan’s fate.
LESSONS FOR PAKISTAN AND THE DEVELOPING WORLD: A CALL TO PREVENT THE FIRE
Sudan’s war, born of “coup proofing” militias and failed transitions, screams warnings for Pakistan. Our own 2022 no-confidence vote and civil-military tensions mirror the SAF-RSF rift power vacuums invite ethnic flare-ups in Balochistan or Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Lesson one: Prioritize civilian-led transitions. Sudan’s 2019 revolution crumbled without safeguards; Pakistan must fortify institutions against elite capture, as in our delayed elections.
Second, curb foreign meddling. UAE and Iran proxies fuel Sudan’s fire; Pakistan’s CPEC vulnerabilities demand neutral diplomacy to avoid becoming a battleground. Third, invest in economic resilience. Sudan’s trade collapse shows how conflict amplifies fragility Pakistan should diversify beyond remittances (eight percent of GDP) and bolster border security to shield against spillovers.
For developing nations, Sudan’s shadow urges multilateral action: UN sanctions on arms flows, IGAD driven ceasefires, and $6 billion aid packages must evolve into accountability mechanisms. Pakistan, with its Sudan ties, can lead OIC advocacy for Darfur probes and refugee pacts.
Sudan’s blood soaked sands remind us: Civil wars don’t end with victory, they scar generations. Pakistan, learn swiftly: Fortify unity, or risk the blaze next door becoming our own.
In simple words Sudan is not another African civil war; but a profound warning to all the Muslims and Arabs that when civil institutions fail and militias are given the right to become similar forces, this results in destruction, poverty, hunger, and widespread violence even in large and strategically important countries. In October, 2025 the fall of El Fasher, the ethnic massacres recorded for propaganda, the economic implosion and deliberate bombing of a hospital, all reduced the oil production to the half and driven the more than half of the population in symptoms of the same diseases that has already affected Syria, Yemen and Libya.
