Southeast Asia is highly vulnerable to non-traditional and traditional security threats. Pakistan has been confronting many challenges which are deeply entrenched, non-traditional security threats along with the traditional security threats due to nuclear conundrum in this region.
However, the South Asian region always remains a hot topic at international forums due to certain concerns about this region. Pakistan, India and China have existential conflicts regarding territory and are nuclear armed states which is a genuine concern for the world. The South Asian region is deeply divided in the world due to states’ different national interests and foreign policy priorities.
Additionally, Pakistan is currently confronting the natural disaster of flood and its aftermath in the near future. Pakistan is in the top 10 countries most vulnerable to climate change according to the UN Environment report. The current floods are exacerbated by climate change and global warming. The people are in devastated condition, with millions displaced and thousands dead. The estimated loss to the economy is over $20 billion. There are a number of challenges which are non-traditional in nature but can lead to hard traditional threats, from porous borders to water security.
Firstly, Pakistan has promulgated many policies to control population growth, from Ayub Khan’ continuous motivation scheme to the recent population policy launched in July 2022, but has failed in implementation. Pakistan, with a population of 220 million people, is very unsafe for food security and ps still growing with the rate of two percent annually, and is still lagging behind other south Asian countries like Iran and India with only one percent each annually. In the 2021 Global Hunger Index, Pakistan ranks 92nd out of the 116 countries with sufficient data to calculate 2021 GHI scores. With a score of 24.7, Pakistan has a level of hunger that is very serious. Pakistan had confronted religious conservative sentiment and challenges against birth control and faced severe criticism for family planning.
Pakistan has to do away with this challenge wholeheartedly because it ultimately results in unemployment and poverty. Pakistan should have to learn from the more conservative Iranian people how they had coped with the religious challenge to address the population problem. If Pakistan does not take this challenge seriously then it would be an ultimate disaster in the form of malnutrition and hunger crises.
Secondly, Pakistan is confronting a water crisis which has severely damaged the agricultural sector with low production yield which leads to food insecurity. Pakistan had lacked in the construction of dams and water storage capacity. Water has remained a serious tussle between India and Pakistan. Climate change poses a serious challenges to water security.
The Southeast Asian region is deeply divided on political grounds due to foreign policy and interests in the region. SAARC is the only organisation which is a vehicle for state-to-state cooperation. This organisation is largely ineffectual due to conflicting relations of member states and remains divided on different issues that hamper the meaningful results. Moreover, naturally, environmental disasters and pandemics are calamities that could lead to political consequences and instability in the states. These are the serious challenges which can lead from soft to hard security threats. There is a dire need of cooperation to avoid the future implications and avoid non-security threats to the security paradigm. There should be a framework to engage thinkers and states experts to enhance the cooperation between the states and bridge the loopholes using alternative approaches.
Additionally, Pakistan lacks infrastructural development due to lack of finances. Neighbouring India has a carryover capacity of 170 days, Egypt for 700 days and America 900 days but Pakistan has only 30 days water carryover capacity which needs to be revamped. Moreover, our country is still grappled in provincial and central conflict over water distribution which has posed serious repercussions for the agriculture sector in Sindh. There is a dire need to set up a workable framework for distribution of water and achievable policies to fulfil the national security goals for human security.
Pakistan is also lagging in sustainable development goals for human security in the domains of health, nutrition, water availability and hygiene. The government should have to take note of this and carve out some apprpriate policies for sustainability. Water is a useful tool for energy production to deal with the crisis of energy.
Thirdly, climate change is posing serious threats to humanity which requires practical steps to mitigate the danger. The International community is paying mere lip service to it, recently at COP 26 where they decided to set up s $100 billion fund for high climate risk-facing states for the development of resilient infrastructure and green energy initiatives to curb the use of fossil fuels. But, there are no significant developments to save humanity because global politics is divided in a north and south blame game and no one is ready to comply with the requirements of the time. Therefore, no one is willing to compromise on individual national interest or economic indicators because they are deeply dependent on fossil fuel for their energy requirements and economic stability.
Pakistan is bearing the brunt of climate change in the form of changing weather patterns which lead to flash floods and millions of people displaced and estimated economic loss of $3.8 billion on yearly bases. Despite Pakistan being the lowest greenhouse gases emitter in the South Asian region, it is on the brink of collapse due to losses of natural calamities and other crises. The government has paid great attention to this issue and introduced a number of projects and the Climate Change Ministry. The most significant project that has earned international appreciation, namely 100 billion tree tsunami, but the government was still lacking in foreign policy grounds for resilient infrastructure technology transfer and required FDI in green energy projects. They need to influence the international community through diplomacy with the help of the Foreign Office regarding the severe climate crises caused by climate change in Pakistan. The government has to build a framework for mitigation of threats and strong disaster management techniques with the cooperation of the regional and international community. Since 1947, the percentage of forest-covered areas has reduced dramatically from 33% to just 5% and continues to reduce at the rate of 1-2% every year with the increase in population. Pakistan needs to start a nationwide campaign to save forest and for tree plantation drives with the collaboration of NGOs to do away with this threat.
Porous borders with Iran and Afghanistan are a major threat to national security and are a non-traditional security threat with the outflow of refugees, pilgrims and commodities illegally. This issue has to be taken seriously because the recent outbreak of cvid-19 in Pakistan was due to free outflow of pilgrims from Iran to Pakistan which became a really challenging non-traditional security threat in the health sector. Therefore, we need to take serious deliberate measures to curb the illegal exchange of goods and people through borders. Pakistan has had an existential border dispute with Afghanistan which could cause a serious traditional security threat to the country. Terrorism is a biggest threat from Afghanistan due to presence of terrorist organisations there that is f great concern for international community. Moreover, political stability in Afghanistan is very important for Pakistan and it can prove in the best interest of Pakistan’s economic development through trade with central Asian states, and many energy-related projects to deal with the energy crises of Pakistan.
The Southeast Asian region is deeply divided on political grounds due to foreign policy and interests in the region. SAARC is the only organisation which is a vehicle for state-to-state cooperation. This organisation is largely ineffectual due to conflicting relations of member states and remains divided on different issues that hamper the meaningful results. Moreover, naturally, environmental disasters and pandemics are calamities that could lead to political consequences and instability in the states. These are the serious challenges which can lead from soft to hard security threats. There is a dire need of cooperation to avoid the future implications and avoid non-security threats to the security paradigm. There should be a framework to engage thinkers and states experts to enhance the cooperation between the states and bridge the loopholes using alternative approaches.
