Following Pakistani politics is nothing less than watching an award-winning mystery film– you just never know what is about to happen or who the villain really is.
The drama of the no-confidence motion has kept the entire nation on the edge of the seat for at-least a fortnight now. Emotions have been running high. Political pundits are once again dominating the media, deciphering every move of government and opposition and trying to predict the final outcome.
Rising international oil prices, weak rupee as a result of large-scale plundering of national wealth, economic mismanagement during the last few decades, and tough IMF conditionalities, nhave been causing unprecedented inflation in the country. This has, obviously, put the government under tremendous pressure.
Thanks to the no-confidence motion, Imran is already in the election mode. While the new government will be busy settling down, Imran would be back on his container building support for the 2023 elections. In fact, it may not be surprising if he calls early elections even if the no-confidence motion is defeated. This will enable him to build on the momentum that has been created in his favour and try his luck in getting a bigger majority in Parliament
Just when the government was finding itself in a tight spot, the opposition came to its rescue. If the opposition succeeds in its no-confidence move against the Prime Minister, it may actually prove to be a blessing in disguise for the government as this will allow it to exit this unfavorable situation and let the opposition steer through the bumpy road ahead. And in doing so, as icing on the cake, gain sympathy from the masses as well. And if the no-confidence motion gets defeated, the opposition loses face, yet again, and Imran Khan comes out stronger than ever before. So, it seems like a win-win situation for Imran. However, for now Imran seems in no mood to give in: he clearly plans to fight till the very end.
Many who voted for the PTI in 2018 were getting disoriented due to high inflation, and other issues like Imran’s insistence on continuing with Usman Buzdar as Chief Minister of Punjab, in-spite of strong opposition from within the party. These people are now returning to the PTI camp with a renewed soft corner for their leader. They are again seeing him as a saviour – a sole crusader against a gang of corrupt looters.
The Opposition has made him a hero again. That too just when his most loyal supporters were beginning to get a bit edgy: they now see him as the victim of international politics that wants to keep Pakistan subservient to its demands and wishes. There was no way Imran could have achieved all of this without the no-confidence move by the opposition.
By miscalculating the move, the opposition has once again given Imran the opportunity to bat on his favorite wicket: public rallies. Nowhere else can he use his charisma better than when addressing large public gatherings. The opposition should have known that no Pakistani politician can attract crowds better than Imran– it seems like a loose delivery which Imran is well positioned to hit for a six.
Blinded by the greed for power, the opposition is deliberately ignoring the fact that inflation, after all, is not entirely Imran’s doing. Rising international prices will continue to cause inflation at home, irrespective of who is ruling. The rupee, though adjusted to its realistic value, is still vulnerable. In case the opposition actually manages to remove the PTI government through the vote of no-confidence, it will need to tackle sticky issues like inflation and a weak currency. Unlike last time, it may not be easy for any new government to keep the rupee overvalued. Imran, now with experience of running the country, that too with a very hostile opposition, will be a ferocious opposition leader with a much bigger presence inside Parliament than what he enjoyed last time around.
It is no secret that the strategic relationship between China and Pakistan has reached new heights in recent times. No matter what is said for public consumption, this coziness has come, at least to some extent, at the expense of Islamabad’s relations with Washington. It was no coincidence that Imran Khan was in Moscow at the time when Russia decided to invade Ukraine. The timing of the no-confidence motion, therefore, is naturally being seen as an attempt to punish Khan by those who were disturbed by his presence in Moscow at a moment most unpleasant to them. This card is already being played, presumably with quite a bit of success, in the social media by Khan’s supporters to discredit the current opposition leaders as agents of the West and to present Imran as the liberator!
Success of the no-confidence move by the opposition, which is generally seen as being close to the West, would effectively mean a huge setback to China. How would China, now a major supplier of arms to Pakistan, view this? Could the no-confidence move be some kind of proxy war by the Westt against China being fought in Pakistan’s Parliament?
With a precarious situation in Central Asia due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, will Russia, a powerful member of the China-led Eastern Bloc, sit back and let the strategic balance of power in the region tilt in favor of the West? This will surely cause jitters which may be felt beyond the region.
Regional and international realignments, which are surprisingly being ignored by some political commentators,are what need to be carefully assessed as these trends will have a huge bearing on Pakistani politics.
Many political commentators define Imran as a puppet in the hands of the establishment, accusing him of doing whatever is being told to him. And in the same breath the same commentators go on to say “ye kissi ki sunta hee nahi hai” (he just doesn’t listen to anyone). These commentators are not only confused but they are also stuck in the past, evaluating political events in Pakistan using an obsolete yardstick, oblivious to the paradigm shift that has already taken place in national, regional and international politics they misguide their audience.
It is naive to believe that the all-powerful Pakistan Army will quietly sit and watch the drama unfold. True, it is not Army’s job to rule the country or even interfere in the politics. But it is very much its job to identify and dismantle conspiracies that can damage Pakistan’s strategic interests. If there is the slightest outside role in what is currently happening in the country, then this simply cannot be termed “politics”. This will be taken as effort to undermine and sabotage Pakistan’s sovereignty.
Also, the Pakistani voter is now far more aware than ever before. Gone are the days when voters were taken for a ride with hollow slogans. Maneuvering things in Parliament where the government lacks simple majority is one thing, but in general elections, which are just around the corner, getting well-informed masses to vote for people who have repeatedly failed to deliver in the past is going to be quite a different ball game. And the undeniable fact is that whatever the outcome of the vote on the no-confidence motion, all parties will soon be campaigning for 2023 general elections.
Coming back to the no-confidence motion, in case the PTI loses the vote it can make Parliament ineffective by tending mass resignations and forcing early elections. Or should the Parliament somehow manage to continue, in-spite of mass resignation by PTI MNAs, the remaining 15-odd months will be used as an election campaign for 2023.
Thanks to the no-confidence motion, Imran is already in the election mode. While the new government will be busy settling down, Imran would be back on his container building support for the 2023 elections. In fact, it may not be surprising if he calls early elections even if the no-confidence motion is defeated. This will enable him to build on the momentum that has been created in his favour and try his luck in getting a bigger majority in Parliament.
