The confirmation by the Pakistani Defence Production Minister that Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkiye were engaged in talks on a defence agreement and that a draft agreement would now be considered by all three countries raises new possibilities for the Middle East and possibly Europe, though Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan was quick, at a press conference in Istanbul, to say that no agreement had been signed. The agreement would bring together two of the most militarily capable Muslim countries along with the richest. It would also bring together three of the most important US allies in the greater Middle East, and it is likely that Turkiye will have to do the most due diligence on the agreement, to make sure it does not clash with any of its commitments as a member of NATO.
The most interesting aspect is that no defence minister has spoken on the issue, which would indicate that the agreement would be focused on defence production rather than the developing of an alliance system. After all, Turkiye and Saudi Arabia have divergent interests with respect at Iran, with which the former has good relations, and which the latter has only recently made up after Chinese intervention. Neither of them want to join in any confrontation with India, with which Pakistan had a conflict last summer. On the other hand, Turco-Pakistani cooperation in aerospace and nava; ventures has been considerable, and Saudi capital may act as a force multiplier for both countries. At the same time, the agreement does not bring Turkiye into the military agreement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, just as it does not bring the latter two into NATO. However, the natural thrust of the alliance is the same: Israel. It has of late been more active than usual, and its attack on Qatar showed that being allied to the USA is no safeguard against it.
Not only do all three have to deal with populations which are upset about the Israeli genocide in Gaza, but they have to protect themselves. In the circumstances since last year’s Israeli bombing of Iran, and Pakistan’s success against India, it seems to have dawned on all three that cooperation is the only way forward. The agreement, when it comes, will oblige all three states to coordinate their foreign policies. That will carry its own consequences.
