Opec+ expected to raise oil quotas again as Gulf exports recover

WASHINGTON: Seven Opec+ members are expected to increase oil production quotas when they meet online on Sunday to discuss August output levels, according to analysts cited by AFP.

The countries due to take part in the discussions are Saudi Arabia, Russia and five other members of the wider Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies. Giovanni Staunovo, a commodity analyst at Swiss bank UBS, said the group was likely to keep easing its production curbs at the same rate seen in recent months and forecast an increase of 188,000 barrels per day.

Staunovo also said actual output was still probably below the group’s targets.

Output fell during Strait of Hormuz disruption

Gulf producers reduced output after the near-paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz during the Middle East war, when Iran’s actions disrupted shipping and blocked oil exports from the region for several months. Opec data showed that between the first quarter of 2026 and May, combined production by Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait — three of the seven countries expected to receive higher quotas — dropped by around six million barrels per day.

A change in conditions followed on June 17, when Tehran and Washington signed a memorandum of understanding under which they committed to removing obstacles to maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz for the duration of their talks after the agreement was signed.

Shipping shows signs of recovery

Since that understanding, tanker traffic in the area has begun to recover and oil prices have fallen sharply, returning to levels comparable to those seen before the war as markets anticipated a gradual normalisation in exports.

According to a US official quoted by Bloomberg, oil flows through the waterway may already have risen above 10 million barrels a day. However, Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen said the crude now moving through the strait had so far been drawn from floating storage or land-based facilities rather than newly restarted output.