Negotiations under threat

The USA and Iran make progress, but are not yet out of the woods

The US-Iran talks are at their initial stages, which might explain why the two delegations seem to be taking maximalist positions that are not conducive to a peaceful conclusion. For example, the issue of the Strait of Hormuz: closing it had disrupted the economy of the entire world, and reopening it had been the top priority for the USA in agreeing to end the conflict. The USA wants the restoration of its prewar status as a free waterway. Iran wants to be allowed to charge a toll on all ships passing through. The toll issue should be quickly settled, so that the two sides may move on to more contentious issues. At present, shipping is being allowed to move freely, but only for the 60 days allowed for negotiation.

Perhaps the most contentious issue is that of Iran’s nuclear programme, and its preparing to make a nuclear bomb. The USA claims that Iran had agreed to let back the International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors it had expelled last year, accusing them of spying for the USA. Iran has hotly denied the claim. On the one hand, it is difficult to see any sort of agreement on what is a very contentious issue without a verification mechanism, which in turn the IAEA is best placed to provide. On the other hand, Iranian fears of inspectors acting as spies for the USA, at the very least as sources for human intelligence, cannot be dismissed out of hand. Another problem that has arisen is what is to be done about the Iranian assets confiscated by the USA, and which it has promised to return. US President Donald Trump has said that the money would be used to buy food and medicines. On the other hand, the Iranian ambassador to the USA has said that the money would be up to the Iranian government to spend as it wished.

Iran must remain conscious of one thing. Just as Mr Trump entered this conflict without complete support from the US public, he has agreed to the ceasefire without complete support from his base. The return of confiscated assets, and the transfer of funds to Iran, have raised hackles both among the Zionists and the MAGA movement. True, the funds are not only Iranian, but their having to return reflects the failure of the sanctions under which they were confiscated. However, Iran must tread wisely to keep the deal alive.