A Clear Battle line up

What failed negotiations give way to

It is seemingly dead silence along the diplomatic hotlines’ lines; in the red zone in Islamabad and elsewhere; however, the humming of the engines of KC-135 and KC-46 Pegasus landing in various destinations in the Middle East and the Gulf signals something else.

The body language of the pro-JCPOA bloc in the Iranian establishment poses as if the talks are well within reach; there is still a semblance of ‘ghost’ negotiations going on, while the official reaction from the USA is hardening of the stance, with the US President seeming to suggest arrogantly that the talks can only be possible either by phone; or when the Iranians call him.

The stalemate for the bewildered international watchers, journalists, analysts and the stakeholders in the conflict seems to have been broken by what the ‘ghost’ supreme leader of the only theocratic state of the world, the Islamic Republic of Iran, stated Thursday in more than clear terms that the ‘nuclear programme as well as the national defence imperatives like the missile programme are above the negotiation table and thus cannot be talked over.’

The battlelines seem clearer for the third-party observer. The US administration was looking for a surrender document under the garb of negotiations, which is not available now. The reformist administration was clueless and was blurting nationalist statements to conform to the mood in the streets. The statement by the ‘elusive Rahbar’ in the best “Shia” political traditions, seems to set the battle lines. The next days and weeks might witness trying times for the global economy in terms of increasing oil prices, more collateral damage in the region, especially Iran, and the potential entry of otherwise evasive players in the arena; only time will tell

The message, not an audio clip or a video clip, rather still a written statement read out to the Iranian viewers by an IRIB presenter or an anchor, seems to be a message to the sitting reformist administration also and at the same time, timed to put to rest any ideas that the Iranian society is a divided entity.

It may be pointed out that there has been a lot of friction between the parliament MPs, as well as the administration, as to where the country’s foreign policy is going. There have been nightmarish fears among the radical camp that the gains accrued on the battlefield by putting on hold the ‘regime change’, the stalemate over what the USA and IDF were contemplating, which was a military rout, will be compromised at the negotiating table.

Towards that end, whispering within Iran and in the international media has been gaining strength if the supreme leader was to be actually ever able to take control of the things or not. People were already taking the names of Vahidi as well as Qalibaf as the leaders of their respective sections of the IRGC. Here one cannot help but say that the current situation faced by the ‘Nezam’ is one of the greatest existential threats ever faced by it. With the leadership regarded as dangerous has been decapitated by the ‘regime change brigade’ comprising the compromised assets as well as the foreign state actors; and that done with impunity, it has been a next to impossible task for the surviving leadership, despite being able to walk on his own feet, even with a limp, to come out casually for the sake of the support base, the section of society in Iran, which still resonates with what Ayatollah Khomeini thought of for the Iranian society.

For a third party observer, it looks like a crisis-time ‘reenactment of the Passion play or Rowda’, part and parcel of the Iranian society, being an adherent of particular school of thought; where a very important person was been narrated as a silent participant at his father’s funeral, which is regarded as a security imperative; coupled with need for him to be ‘elusive’ or like a ‘ghost’, present yet invisible. However, that mode of leadership seems to resonate with the people who populate the almost daily nocturnal gatherings of the Nezam supporters, not just in the capital Tehran or for that matter in the major cities like Shiraz or Mashhad, rather across the country.

With the confusion generated in the first week of April, when there was so much optimism, though artificial, that a deal will break through in Islamabad, the situation now seems more matter of fact. It may be pointed out that much of the optimism was encrypted in the buzzword not mentioned too often by the international media; in how much time, the Iranians are going to capitulate to what the world (read Trump and Israel) want Iran to do. The four foreign ministers of Pakistan, Türkiye, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, clearly form the United States camp of following talking about ushering in peace in the Middle East were certainly knowing that in all the circumstances, Iran will have to give in to what the world is saying.

The progress of talks between the highest echelons of power in the power structure of the USA and Iran in Islamabad was generally felt to be clear conversation, where the responses will be bare. Obviously, the first such meeting in 11 years after the successful finalization of JCPOA in 2015 was itself a miracle, but a non-starter from the onset. The positivity generated in Pakistani power circles and also among the general public was so much that many Pakistanis did not waste time to invest in Iranian rial or toman, in the hope to get some quick profit. As market sources point out, their investments might be in vain. The reason for investing was a false ray of hope, which was not there in the first place.

Here it is pertinent to note that the reformist administration in place in Tehran suffered from a serious disconnect from the man in the street. The 2015 JCPOA was the follow-up of a time of peace between the two states, Iran and the USA; as there was no war, the theatres where both were present like the Afghan war, the Iraq war, the Daesh war, were arenas of potential d-ooperation, despite the fact that the USA was after the Iran supported-system of the Syrian Baath under the Assad clan, wishing that system to collapse in one way or another, the wish it got realized in December 2024.

The lack of empathy in the minds of Reformists after a month and half of relentless aggression, if on one hand was the misplaced optimism, behaving as if it was 2015, or 2020, was the cause of what has transpired; now with the Supreme Leader taking the centrestage and removing doubts in the minds of the Iranians in the street and those who are just watching, where does the situation lead to?

As the non-starter Islamabad talks did not create any follow-up point for further work upon; which should have been the case if the negotiations were conducted in the pattern followed by the then Obama administration under the stewardship of Senator Kerry. The Trump Administration was simply not in that frame of mind to painstakingly get into the minute details. Neither was the P+1, the other stakeholder state framework. adopted this time.

Practically, there was an intellectual disconnect between the aggressive Trump Administration and the compliant Reformist administration. The occasion was wrong, as it was not a peacetime negotiation, rather the Americans were simply eyeing a surrender from a war-weary Iranian government. It was naïve on part of the reformist administration to take advantage of chaos and tactical absence of the central authority and go alone in finalizing a deal, which was likely to be unequal in essence.

For obvious reasons, the US posture of calling of negotiations unliterally, unwilling to lift the blockade on the Iranian registered tankers, bucking up assets in the Gulf for potential strike against Iran in the coming days, it was all natural and timely that the wounded Nezam will still make its presence felt.

The battlelines seem clearer for the third-party observer. The US administration was looking for a surrender document under the garb of negotiations, which is not available now. The reformist administration was clueless and was blurting nationalist statements to conform to the mood in the streets. The statement by the ‘elusive Rahbar’ in the best “Shia” political traditions, seems to set the battle lines. The next days and weeks might witness trying times for the global economy in terms of increasing oil prices, more collateral damage in the region, especially Iran, and the potential entry of otherwise evasive players in the arena; only time will tell.