In search of peace

Has the peace process broken down?

Though there was no meeting between US and Iranian delegations in Islamabad over the weekend, diplomatic activity to find a solution to the crisis created by the USA’s and Israel’s attack on Iran continued. While US President Trump studied the latest Iranian proposals, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi went to Moscow to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin, where he received unknown assurances. Iran has not received any material help from Russia, which is itself entangled in Ukraine. However, Mr Aragchi got a public expression of support. Mr Putin also said that Russia was willing to do whatever was necessary to bring peace.

Of course, there are wheels within wheels. Russia will be pleased to see the USA bleed because it is indirectly opposed to it in Ukraine. The USA is getting the help of Ukrainian anti-drone fighters, which would be of interest to Russia, because it has used Iranian-made drones extensively in its war with Ukraine. The spike in oil prices has also been of benefit to Russia, which is, like Iran, an oil exporter labouring under US sanctions. That to Russian oil uses the Hormuz Strait has meant that it is demand, because shipments from it are more capable of delivery. It must be also noted that Russia is also closely allied with China, which has its own direct connection with Iran, and which has its own four-point framework for peace. Saudi Artabia is involved, with its Foreign Minister Faisal ibn Farhan Al-Saud has also been active coordinating with regional and global partners, including reaching out most recently to Qatar and the Gulf Cooperation Council. One party that has no hand in this diplomatic activity has been Israel, not just because it is an international pariah no one wants to engage with, but because it continued its savagery in Lebanon, with Monday seeing renewed bombing of the Bekaa Valley.

The first hike of the interest rate in three years in Pakistan is an illustration of the costs of this conflict. Pakistan does not solely wish to stop two friends fighting, but it also has to ensure that its economy does not go down the drain. The problem seems to be that the two countries are still too far apart to come to an agreement without another trial of strength. That is precisely what everyone wishes to avoid, for now both only have the other’s own or allies’ oil infrastructure to damage.