The Façade of Negotiations or the Psywar

Weeks of false talk gives way to proverbial stone-age threat

The world and Pakistan were witness to weeks of surprisingly soft talk on part of the US President, strongly suggesting that the war between the USA and Israel on one side, and Iran on the other, would be over by the first or second week of April.

Pakistan too has reasons to be optimistic, as the government at various tiers was working covertly or overtly to bring peace to the region. There was extreme ambiguity as to what was happening at each end. The people in Islamabad were led to believe and the local media inflated that aspect that any negotiations held will be in Pakistan with no one less than the US Vice-President leading the US side. On the other hand, the speaker of Iranian parliament Baqir Qalibaf must have thought over about his importance within the Nezam that he is the man of the hour, given his name was toyed as the person who will lead the Iranian side of the negotiation.

The weeks ahead might see even more intensity in the operations launched from both sides. It will be of importance to see, if the supposed allies of Iran; China and Russia are ready to throw their strategic weight behind their slain comrade Ali Khamanei’s son, Mujtaba, or allow the US-IDF coalition free rein, leaving much to the strength and resilience of the Iranians in general and the IRGC in particular, to what extent they can resist and eventually turn the tables; especially if the much trumpeted ground war commences. That face-off between the IRGC and the 82^nd Airborne Division will be the deciding factor for the conflict; whose rationale is still being questioned by the geopolitical analysts

If that was not enough the simpleton Iranian President Massoud Phezishkian was suggested to the person on the other side of the fence willing to talk with the Americans. It may be added here while the Western media wanted its subscribers to believe that the Iranian diaspora, which was for the regime change, could not hold back what were the creeping signs of disillusionment with the overkill the US-IDF coalition was committing. The former advisor to US ex-President Barack Obama, Vali Nasr, did not mince words when he said the Islamabad meet was what could have been the trap to get away with Iranian leadership coming over to talk.

If the IS President was cracking jokes as the  person whose nuisance value is at the highest level, courtesy the unipolar world, the mention of neighbouring countries on one hand talking on behalf of the Americans, the mention of people willing to talk who happen to be part of the system or Nezam; all pointedly suggest that the week or so of talks was nothing but a psywar sugarcoated as a façade of negotiations.

A closer look reveals that the US side, while focused on the declared goal of ‘regime change’ through force, was trying to create an imaginary wedge within the Nezam on the premise of the decades-old misperceptions of each group about the other; exploiting it to force any party to take a step which might further jeopardize the system.

It is a known fact that before the June 2025 war and the one which started on February 28; the need to talk to the USA for the restoration of JCPOA was basically a reformist child. True that the other organs of the state, like the parliament and even the radicals, despite being suspicious of the US intentions, did not create any hurdles towards the sitting administration, in the case of 2024 and 2025, with the reformist administration calling the shots, whether it was going low on support to the resistance, like the sitting President’s opposition to the Iranian retaliatory acts when Ismail Hania was killed by the internal Mossad hands in Tehran, right after the investiture ceremony for the new reformist President; or it was talking to the Americans in United Nations in September 2024 instead of talking about the Gaza massacre, lending support to the resistance at the time, it needed the diplomatic support the most. 

Even during the early weeks of the war, the statement by the President over Iranians’ attack on the Gulf states, regarded as a bit apologetic, was soon superseded by the military spokesman’s statement. In the conduct of war by the USA, it has been observed that while there has been a wholesale massacre of the IRGC cadres, the mainstream Iranian armed forces have been more or less spared by the US bombardment. 

The last observation, which can also be validated during the 12-day war in June, when the IRGC cadre was decimated in the opening hours by the IDF, and the selection of deceptive words by the US President was designed to act as wedge point between the two factions within the Nezam. The IRGC, very much orphaned after the unceremonious exit of the supreme leader from the scene and the reformists, who might be used or provoked to do the needful for the Americans from within the Nezam. The tone of the US President, asking the Iranian leadership to surrender and create an impression among the man on the street in major Iranian cities, who are keeping a month-long nightly vigil at central places in the city as well as the combatants, was designed to create an air of mistrust and thus plan for a regime change from within. A sort of soft coup might have been deliberately planned by the USA from within the system.

The US President also created an impression that there were a few people in Iran he was talking with and even unscrupulously tried to make use of the sincerity of the Muslim states like Egypt, Pakistan, Turkey and Saudi Arabia for his goals. Starting from a few people in Iran to the controlled media leaks suggesting Vance meeting Qalibaf in Islamabad, unspecified intelligence operations suggesting counter measures for the safety of the Iranian leaders, it was a complete theatrical façade which was created by Trump and the media moles to make one feel that Iran was just round the corner to surrender.

The takeaways were, to unnerve the reformists to do it alone, possibly create bad blood between the IRGC and the reformists, and create a bad impression in the street that the succeeding set-up was just ready to surrender. Speculation about the new supreme leader, his state of health and continued absence were all the variables which were put to use in this theatrical psychological warfare.

Given the nature of Trump and volte face, as things stand, the threat regime has taken precedence over talking even deceptively. The reasons for that can be the failure of the posturing which were designed to create a wedge between the various factions, create an absence of dialogue within the system and then precipitate the desired results. The Stone Age comment, followed by chiding of the western allies by the President; and the early morning attack on just past Thursday; Kamal Kharazi, rather a targeted attack on one of the figures, who were likely to talk, if the diplomatic window was to ever open, clearly indicates the following facts.

The USA and IDF leadership, if taken on merit, have enough baggage to be impeached without a second thought by their respective legislatures and by the judiciary. The Israeli PM has been at loggerheads with the judiciary and the media, with publications like Haaretz facing the music from the party having a majority in the Knesset.

Secondly, Iran despite all the media narrative cannot be blamed for the conflict as it did not start it. There have been ample chances that the two leaders, Trump and Netanyahu, do not have much to show in support of their actions, if tasked with honest negotiations. That leaves the coalition with the intel games; to create an aura of negotiations which are not existing and through the same weapon create confusion in the adversary camp and to finish the job through the scorched-earth campaign.

The weeks ahead might see even more intensity in the operations launched from both sides. It will be of importance to see, if the supposed allies of Iran; China and Russia are ready to throw their strategic weight behind their slain comrade Ali Khamanei’s son, Mujtaba, or allow the US-IDF coalition free rein, leaving much to the strength and resilience of the Iranians in general and the IRGC in particular, to what extent they can resist and eventually turn the tables; especially if the much trumpeted ground war commences. That face-off between the IRGC and the 82^nd Airborne Division will be the deciding factor for the conflict; whose rationale is still being questioned by the geopolitical analysts.