Dangerous Lull, But an Uncertain Culmination

Pakistan’s efforts seem in vain

The mission of peace to get the two warring allies; the USA and Israel, and Iran to stop fighting was not an easy nut to crack and chew in the first place. As things are, the situation is too fluid, with an attrition on, but at the same time holding up fire. Tankers continued to be hunted from both sides, yet there is no definitive indication that any one of the parties is genuinely interested in the new chapters in their relationship.

Obviously, the onus does not fall on the well-meaning intermediaries; individuals as well as the states involved. What actually mattered and even now matters is the mindset of the warring parties. The mere mention of Iranian politicians suspected of giving up to the ‘Americans’ elicited such a reaction from the street and the powerful factions within the Iranian political jigsaw, that even now any give and take might look like a sell-out for one party, and the imperative adjustment for the other party.

The world is still ripe for a negotiation on the issue, away from presumptions or distrust. It is high time that many players who have remained mute for the want of their corporate survival come forward and join up with sincere intermediaries like Türkiye and Pakistan and steer the world from a potentially devastating restart of hostilities; whose gunpowder smell has already metaphorically overtaken the feel of a fresh breeze, which the world deserves to breathe

Despite deep factionalism even on the street within the Iranian society, the man on the street does not discount the need to move forward, however the reckless leadership decapitation campaign by the IDF with complete logistics support from the USA, in the form of real-time intelligence, flight refueling; has in the end handicapped US ability to make the Iranians feel that they would be honoured as equal partners in any agreement.

The handicap is two-pronged; one, that most of the people, including the slain Supreme Leader, are not there to balance out and preach moderation to all the parties, despite Ali Khamenei’s own misgivings about ‘talking with Americans’. There is no moderating voice now in Iranian society. The second handicap is that those who are trying to adhere to all the camps are under the pressure of stigma to an extent that they simply cannot talk peace, without running the risk of being called traitors, or something close to it.

Without naming the responsible heads of the institutions in Iran like the Parliament or the Foreign Ministry, they already had a bad reputation of being either too ‘naïve’ or too willing to shake hands with the other party. That feeling was reflected in the somewhat apologetic interview of the speaker, where the person, being an old IRGC hand, had to at pains to explain to the audience that the battlefields move from the launchpads of the warheads to the negotiating table. In order to confirm the mood in the street, the negotiating team had no other option but to go with the nationalist tide in the streets.

Here it is pertinent to note that right from the days of the birth of the reform movement in Iran; the general recognition to revise and review the ideals of the revolutionary movement of 1979, the issue of talking to the USA has been a territory mined with suspicion or quick labelling of the proposer as a sellout. The matters have been made further worse by the way US administrations have dealt with Iran over four decades. February 28 has been the first instance when military firepower was used to decapitate the leadership, however before that the Americans have been found to give a lending hand to anyone fighting with the Iranian Nezam.

The short-term US flirtation with the Iraqi faction of Baath; with the Iraqi Air Force getting detailed satellite inputs from the CIA as explained by veteran ‘CIA Beat' Bob Woodward in his 1987 bestseller, the shooting down of an Iranian Airbus in July 1988 under the lame excuse of the jet being mistaken for F-14 Tomcat even the latter was much smaller in wingspan, and many other incidents, have as a matter of fact strengthened those strains in the Iranian society which feel, it is better for the Iranians that they never talk to the Americans.

That historical baggage has been further strengthened the way the Trump Administration gave the green light to the IDF on the 13 June 2025 early-hour strikes or the February 28 decapitation; both times the reformists boasting that the JCPOA was round the corner.

Given that baggage already in place, it was unlikely that a series of meetings are planned between the states like the USA and Iran to talk peace over a cup of tea or coffee with a few confectioneries to serve the guests. The task was much greater in volume for the professional intervention like the Foreign Office or for the other players; hoping that their individual presence might make the difference.

Regretfully, it was not the case. As things stand, the whole world is in a state of suspense as to ‘what is next’. Despite a general feeling that the escalation will die down gradually, flight tracking data available in public domain through Android or Apple Apps reveals that a new stream of logistics equipment inclusive of the flight refueling tankers is on its way to the Middle East destinations.

Though the public domain apps usually do not display the coordinates of combat jets, be they vintage USAF A-10 for ground attack missions or the FA-18 deep penetration strike jets, it is a common presumption that these tankers might well be the part of refueling escort for an increased number of combat jet assets likely to be deployed in the ‘Persian Gulf Theater’. As news pours out the fresh FA-18 combat aircraft have already reached the relevant airbases in the Gulf.

There are reasons to believe that the world is looking at these developments with concern; refusal of the warring parties to have confidence in each other; tit for tat acts; strong indications that the militarily powerful party is trying to dictate peace terms(read surrender) on the basis of threat of fire power; such naked expression of coercion on part of the militarily dominant party on another nation state, that too a cradle of civilization in its own right; is a prescription of a dangerous stalemate, no the resolution of the conflict.

For regional countries like Turkey and Pakistan, who can still vouch for their sincerity to resolve the issue, it is imperative that they go beyond efforts for a ‘good press’ aimed only at ‘winning laurels’. The situation is serious in terms of expected loss of human lives; the escalation may turn into a worldwide conflict and it is high time that other regional forums like EU, many of whose member states have shown courage to differ with the USA on the issues, also join hands in a manner that the cornered parties feel that justice is being done, and there is not a ‘hush up’, as is being felt.

The fluidity of the situation can develop towards any direction. However, any attempt to force a deal through massacre or fire power might not last long; rather such outcomes might have the potential to create lasting wounds. The grave situation needs a rethink of the strategy of the peacemakers more than influencing the public opinion domain. Name calling as witnessed in the trolls along the social media space, especially Twitter, might not help the region or the world in the long run.

The world is still ripe for a negotiation on the issue, away from presumptions or distrust. It is high time that many players who have remained mute for the want of their corporate survival come forward and join up with sincere intermediaries like Türkiye and Pakistan and steer the world from a potentially devastating restart of hostilities; whose gunpowder smell has already metaphorically overtaken the feel of a fresh breeze, which the world deserves to breathe.