Pakistan emerges as mediator in Iran conflict after diplomatic turnaround

Islamabad: Pakistan has moved from diplomatic isolation to a more prominent regional role, with officials and analysts pointing to its growing engagement with the United States, China and Gulf states, as well as its involvement in efforts linked to the conflict involving Iran.

Pakistan was widely seen as isolated a year ago but has since become a regional partner trusted by key capitals. Chief of Defence Forces and Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir has held several meetings with US President Donald Trump, including a one-on-one lunch at the White House. The government also apprehended an Islamic State bomber accused of killing American troops and transferred him to the United States.

Pakistani diplomats have undertaken broad outreach with world leaders while maintaining close ties with China. Arsla Jawaid, a global risk analyst at Control Risks, told Reuters, Pakistan's civil-military leadership has been on a charm offensive primarily balancing relations between the US and China as it seeks to employ a diversified foreign policy. She added, All these efforts are beginning to show some signs of success.

Ties between Pakistan and the United States had deteriorated sharply after Osama bin Laden was killed by US Navy SEALs in Pakistan in 2011. Relations were further strained by the imprisonment of former prime minister Imran Khan and accusations from Washington that Pakistan had supported the Taliban behind the scenes during the 20-year war in Afghanistan. Economically, the country had also come close to debt default before securing a new agreement with the International Monetary Fund after difficult negotiations around 18 months ago.

Turning points in ties with Washington

Analysts and government officials identified two major developments in rebuilding trust with Washington. The first came in March last year, when Pakistan helped capture a suspect linked to the 2021 Kabul airport bombing that killed 170 Afghans and 13 US soldiers. The move led to public thanks from Trump and renewed intelligence cooperation.

Maleeha Lodhi, Pakistan's former ambassador to the United States, said the cooperation was critical in reversing decades of mistrust.

The second turning point, came in May during a 90-hour confrontation with India. Foreign Office spokesperson Tahir Andrabi said the episode significantly strengthened Pakistan's diplomatic standing because the country's military leadership showed tremendous restraint after successfully downing Indian fighter jets.

Pakistan quickly engaged the United States in efforts to stop the fighting between the two nuclear-armed neighbours and later nominated Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize.

Civil-military coordination and regional diplomacy

Munir's White House visit was especially significant because it marked the first time a sitting US president had received Pakistan's military chief without the civilian leadership present. Government officials said Pakistan's diplomatic repositioning has been driven by close civil-military coordination and its ability to manage ties with Gulf countries alongside relations with Washington and Beijing.

Mosharraf Zaidi, spokesperson for Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, told Reuters, If there is one factor above all that has fuelled the widening of diplomatic opportunity for Pakistan, it is the trust and symbiosis between the field marshal and prime minister.

Zaidi and Andrabi both referred to diplomatic outreach from their offices, including numerous meetings and near-daily calls with world leaders. On Sunday, Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar hosted the foreign ministers of Turkiye, Saudi Arabia and Egypt for talks focused on ending the war in Iran. Andrabi said, Because of Dar's frequent interactions with these foreign ministers, they can share intimate comments as well as a solemn moment.

Engagement with the US and concerns in the region

Ties with Washington have deepened through repeated contacts between Pakistan's civilian and military leadership and the White House. Munir and Prime Minister Shehbaz have discussed investment opportunities, a crypto deal with a Trump family-linked business, and Middle East security with US counterparts.

Trump has referred to Munir as his favourite field marshal. Munir was the only serving military chief present at the World Economic Forum in Davos this year. He had further interactions with Trump there and has spoken with Vice President JD Vance multiple times since the Iran war began. A source briefed on the matter said Vance communicated with Pakistani intermediaries about the Iran conflict as recently as Tuesday and indicated Trump was open to a ceasefire if certain demands were met.

Prime Minister Shehbaz has held repeated meetings with Trump, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. Pakistan also signed a mutual defence agreement with Saudi Arabia last year.

Pakistan's growing diplomatic profile has caused concern in India, where opposition figures have criticised the government's limited role in the Middle East conflict. Indian opposition lawmaker Shashi Tharoor said, I have been calling for almost three weeks now for India to take a leading stand, leveraging its good relations with both sides into a peace initiative. Now, apparently, Pakistan, Egypt and Turkiye have done it. Good luck to them. but India gets no credit while Pakistan is holding the peace talks.

Pakistan's economy remains weak and analysts say the country could face risks from the regional conflict because of its defence pact with Saudi Arabia. Pakistan is also dealing with tensions involving Afghanistan, which intensified days before the United States and Israel launched strikes on Tehran.

Uzair Yunus of The Asia Group said Pakistan has to continue to look inwards to bolster its own pillars of national power, especially its economy. He added that it also needs to build an integrated defence industrial complex in partnership with Saudi Arabia and Turkiye.

Jawaid said Islamabad would need a long-term strategy to balance ties with Iran, its defence partnership with Riyadh and relations with Washington amid what she described as an unpredictable and possibly prolonged conflict.

The civil-military leadership will need to be very careful of the role and extent of Pakistan's involvement. Overplaying the mediator card could prove to be more damaging if not managed astutely.