India’s ‘water weaponization’ an act of war, threatening regional stability: Experts

• Experts insist Pakistan retains full right to respond to any IWT violation, saying treaty can’t be placed in ‘abeyance’
• Say PCA ruling bars India from unilateral suspension of IWT, urging WB to intervene as IWT guarantor
• Warn unilateral water curtailment risks regional instability, fearing deliberate Chenab flow manipulation threatens food security

LAHORE: Agriculture and water experts on Saturday warned that any attempt by India to curtail Pakistan’s legally guaranteed share of water would constitute an act of war, asserting that Pakistan retains the full right to respond to any violation of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT). They cautioned that India’s actions amounted to the “weaponization of water,” posing grave risks to regional stability, food security, and peace.

In a telephonic conversation with APP, President of Agri Forum Pakistan Dr Ibrahim Mughal categorically rejected India’s claim of placing the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty in “abeyance,” stressing that the landmark agreement remains fully enforceable under international law and cannot be unilaterally suspended, breached, or modified by either party.

Dr Mughal dismissed the use of the term “abeyance” as having no legal standing in international treaty law, describing it as a fabricated expression designed to create ambiguity and mislead public opinion. He noted that India itself has acknowledged that it lacks unilateral authority to suspend the treaty—a position reaffirmed by the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in its June 2025 ruling, which clearly established that India cannot hold the IWT in abeyance without Pakistan’s consent.

He said Pakistan is compelled to pursue a measured and formal response through legal and diplomatic channels, strictly in accordance with the treaty’s dispute-resolution mechanisms. Dr Mughal specifically accused India of deliberately manipulating water flows in the Chenab River, calling it a clear case of “weaponization of water” with far-reaching consequences for Pakistan’s agriculture, irrigation systems, food security, and overall regional peace.

Explaining the treaty framework, Dr Mughal said the IWT does not allocate a fixed volume of water to Pakistan but guarantees the uninterrupted natural flow of the western rivers—Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab. While these rivers historically followed their natural courses, he said recent artificial interventions have severely disrupted irrigation schedules, cropping patterns, and agricultural cycles.

Dr Mughal further stated that there was no legal, technical, or moral basis for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s statement regarding the abeyance of the treaty. Recalling the historical context, he noted that Pakistan had already made substantial concessions under the IWT by granting India control over the three eastern rivers—Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej. As a consequence, the Sutlej now remains largely dry except during flood seasons, while the Ravi has effectively dried up, giving India a significant upstream advantage.

Meanwhile, Chairman Pakistan Economic and Political Forum (PEPF) Noor Muhammad Kasuri said the World Bank, as the guarantor of the Indus Waters Treaty, should be formally approached to intervene in the matter.

Kasuri said Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif had achieved significant diplomatic success following Pakistan’s victory over Indian aggression in May 2025, adding that Pakistan’s friendly countries should now be actively engaged to help resolve the issue.

He emphasized that under the treaty, no party has the right to suspend the agreement unilaterally, declaring India’s actions a direct violation of international law and tantamount to an act of war against Pakistan.