Wings of the future

In March 2017, China's People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) achieved a significant milestone when its fifth generation jet, the Chengdu J-20 Mighty Dragon stealth aircraft, entered into service. As the world’s first operational stealth aircraft operationalised outside the USA, this development marked the end of the USA’s monopoly on military aviation. Now only seven years down the lane, China made an even bigger bang, when video footage surfaced of a new aircraft, speculated to be sixth-generation, flying over Chengdu, China.

Though the Chinese authorities have not yet officially confirmed the jet’s existence or given it a name, the development has spurred a renewed debate around the world over what constitutes a sixth-generation fighter aircraft, China’s strategic motivation, its impact on China’s global power projection, and broader implications for global military aviation.

To completely comprehend the notion of sixth-generation fighter jets, it is significant to trace the evolution of aircraft over generations. The voyage began with the first-generation piston-engine fighters and continued to the second generation, which saw the introduction of guided missiles. The third generation witnessed the arrival of Beyond Visual Range (BVR) engagements, while the fourth generation introduced multi-role capability, as demonstrated by aircraft such as the F-16. Subsequently, fifth-generation aircraft laid the foundation for the next major advancement with their stealth technology, advanced sensor and communication systems, and super cruise capabilities through F-22 Raptor, F-35 Lightning II, J-20, J-35, and Su-57.

The sixth-generation aircraft is speculated to transcend the fifth-generation combat aircraft in terms of stealth capability. China is already pushing the boundaries of stealth technology in its much-discussed sixth-generation fighter jet. There is widespread speculation that the concerned aircraft is likely to have stealth materials that will be thin and lightweight and will be able to absorb both high-frequency electromagnetic waves from advanced military radars and low-frequency detection signals used by anti-stealth radars.

The sixth-generation aircraft are also touted as digital aircraft since they integrate control capabilities with artificial intelligence (AI) that will enable these fighters to conduct more autonomous missions, make decisions in real time on the battlefield, and immediately analyse volumes of data.

Moreover, the probable integration of certain directed energy weapons (DEWs), like powerful microwaves or laser systems, is another novel feature. It is anticipated that these fighter jets will also feature an unmatched network integration becoming a part of a seamlessly integrated combat system that includes other aircraft, drones, ground stations, and satellite networks to make it effective for joint military operations. In addition, this sixth generation aircraft is also believed to have an advanced radar system capable of detecting and engaging threats at greater distance which will provide the pilots a crucial advantage in modern air battles.

Keeping aside AMCA, India is currently struggling to induct even improved variants of its fourth-generation Tejas Mk1A and the so-called 4.5 generation MK2 fighters owing to persistent delays in procurement and dependence on foreign-built engines. In sum, this technological lag will place India in a precarious position and will weaken its stance in the region owing to the fact that it would have to deal now with fifth-gen fighters from the two sides of its border that will soon be complemented by a sixth generation fighter as well.

Considering the aforementioned points, it can be argued that the development will have significant implications for military aviation around the world. With the fifth-generation jets, the USA and its allies have dominated the skies for a long time. However, China's new inroads into sixth-generation technology have now sent a powerful message to its competitors, particularly the USA, that China is not only trying to close the gap aggressively but is also deeply committed to shaping the future of military aviation and air combat with its advanced and diverse fleet.

Consequently, this advancement could spark a renewed arms race between China and the Western countries. Reports are already doing rounds that suggest that Western nations are likely to accelerate their sixth-generation aircraft programmes, including the USA's Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) and Europe’s Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), a collaborative initiative of the UK, Italy, and Japan.

From a geopolitical and strategic point of view, in the wake of a sixth-generation combat aircraft, China’s position is likely to be strengthened. It will enable China to leverage its cutting-edge air warfare technologies, particularly in disputed regions such as the South China Sea, the Taiwan Strait, and other areas of its interest. In addition, it will enable China to conduct missions to potentially deny adversaries’ forces operational capabilities. Consequently, it can prompt the countries, trying to impose themselves on the region, namely the USA, to reassess their defence strategies.

As India is trying to play the role of an offshore balancer and net security provider on behalf of the United States against China in the South Asian region, one might naturally ask how will this development impact it in the region? Like writing on the wall, it is quite obvious that the induction of sixth-generation combat aircraft by China will be no less than a nightmare for India. While China races ahead with sixth-generation fighter development, India is still grappling with the challenge of countering fifth-generation combat aircraft not only from China but also from Pakistan, which is set to acquire the Chinese fifth-generation J-35 fighters by 2026.

India’s much-touted first fifth-generation stealth fighter project Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), is still a dream which is years away from producing even a flying prototype, let alone its eventual induction into the Indian Air Force (IAF), which according to many experts is at least a decade away.

Keeping aside AMCA, India is currently struggling to induct even improved variants of its fourth-generation Tejas Mk1A and the so-called 4.5 generation MK2 fighters owing to persistent delays in procurement and dependence on foreign-built engines. In sum,  this technological lag will place India in a precarious position and will weaken its stance in the region owing to the fact that it would have to deal now with fifth-gen fighters from the two sides of its border that will soon be complemented by a sixth generation fighter as well.