Annual GDP expansion goal will be achieved provided fourth-quarter GDP growth reaches 4.4 percent, Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), said on Wednesday.
According to NBS data released on Wednesday, the country’s GDP grew by 5.2 percent in the first nine months of the year to reach 91.3 trillion yuan ($12.5 trillion).
Sheng said there are positive changes in multiple macro-economic indexes, including economic growth rates, employment, foreign trade, market vitality and business expectations, which underscore the continuous recovery of the Chinese economy in the first three quarters, displaying strong resilience, potential and vitality of the economy.
“It’s proved that the central government’s macro-economic policies are forceful and effective,” he said, urging for more efforts to further implement policies to shore up the basis for recovery.
“The economy will continue to recover in the fourth quarter and maintain an overall upward trend. We are fully confident that the economy will achieve the preset target of around 5 percent,” Sheng said.
From production to demand, and from real economy expectations to day-to-day activity, the Chinese economy has maintained recovery momentum during the first three quarters of the year. Given the sound economic inertia, we believe the economy will continue to maintain stable and upward trend in the fourth quarter, said the official.
A raft of pro-growth policies will continue to produce effects, Sheng said. Since July, China has announced a range of policy commitments, targeting specific sectors ranging from accelerating consumption, private enterprises, and property market, the capital market and foreign exchange market, which are well-aligned and will reinforce one another.
Due to the impact of COVID-19 mobility restrictions, China’s GDP grew by merely 2.9 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter in 2022.
Dismissing Western media’s smear of China’s economy, Chinese analysts said the economy is better than many have expected and is well on track to achieve its annual growth target of around 5 percent this year. They also noted that the growth potential of China’s economy is enormous, considering dividends brought by the country’s transformation of labor force structure, urbanization and ongoing industrial upgrade.
They stressed it is absurd that the Western media continue to overplay the concerns that China will experience a Japan-style economic stagnation in the 1990s because the fundamentals of the Chinese economy are stable, the tech sector makes rapid progress and consumer expectations remains sound.
The economy grew by 4.9 percent year-on-year between July and September, and expanded by 5.2 percent in the first three quarters, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Tuesday.
“Though it’s slightly slower than the second-quarter GDP growth rate of 6.3 percent year-on-year, I would still give a thumb-up for China’s economy. The result is hard-won amid more complex and grave external environment and some domestic challenges, underscoring that macro-policies are producing effects and positive factors are amassing,” Cao Heping, an economist at Peking University, told the Global Times.
There were multiple highlights contributing to China’s economic recovery in the third quarter, including continuous release of domestic demand potential, stable growth of foreign trade and industrial output over the period, Cong Yi, a professor from the Tianjin University of Finance and Economics, told the Global Times.
According to NBS data, the total retail sales of consumer goods jumped by 5.5 percent year-on-year in September, beating analysts’ forecast of 4.9 percent year-on-year over the reporting period. In addition, the total value added of the industrial enterprises above the designated size grew by 4.0 percent year-on-year in the first three quarters.
The country’s fixed-asset investment grew steadily by 3.1 percent year-on-year in the first three quarters.
The stable operation of the world’s second-largest economy has continued to defy Western naysayers, analysts said, expressing firm faith in China’s economic outlook and its irreplaceable role in driving global economic recovery.
“Compared with major economies, China’s economy is relatively stable. As the Chinese economy is in a critical period of economic recovery and industrial structure adjustment, the challenges faced by the economy are within expectations. However, challenges and pressure will not hinder China’s development as we firmly pursue high-quality development,” Cong said.
Looking ahead, China’s economy will further recover in the fourth quarter of 2023, traditionally a consumption peak, contributing to the achievement of its annual growth target of around 5 percent this year, Cao said.
“The fundamentals for China’s development have remained unchanged, strengths for development remained unchanged and keep expanding, and new growth drivers are burgeoning,” Chinese Premier Li Qiang said at a symposium on the economic situation held on Friday.
Li urged efforts to deliver macro-policy regulation more effectively, strengthen policy prediction and research, and step up nurturing new drivers and advantages for high-quality development.
“Despite rising external headwinds including a volatile international environment and growing trade protectionism, there is no need to worry about the Chinese economy,” Cong said, noting that the country needs to maintain strategic focus to achieve high-quality development.
In the fourth quarter, more efforts are needed to continue to maintain consumers’ consumption enthusiasm and implement key projects listed in the country’s 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25) as soon as possible to stabilize the country’s investment, Tian Yun, a Beijing-based economist, told the Global Times.
In response to Western media hype about China’s so-called “Japanization” risk, Tian said the growth potential of China’s economy still prevails, considering dividends brought by the country’s transformation of labor structure, urbanization and industrial upgrade. “China’s great economic potential could be tapped only by accelerating policy adjustment and further smooth ‘dual circulation’ through reform and opening-up,” Tian said.
