BEIJING: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its forecast for China’s economic growth in 2025 and 2026 to 5.0 and 4.5 percent, respectively, in its updated World Economic Outlook on Monday.
This upward revision reflects stronger activity supported by stimulus measures and additional investment financing from policy banks, which have helped sustain domestic demand and bolster confidence amid external pressures, according to the outlook.
According to the IMF, the global economy is expected to remain relatively resilient despite trade disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties. The Fund projects global growth of about 3.3 percent in 2026, an upward adjustment of 0.2 percentage points from its October forecast, with improved performance in major economies such as the United States and China contributing to the revision.
China’s stronger outlook is partly due to improved export performance and supportive fiscal and credit policies. Chinese policymakers have also responded to IMF recommendations by enhancing macroeconomic support, including targeted fiscal measures, continued monetary accommodation, and efforts to stimulate private investment and consumption. These measures align with the IMF’s emphasis on balancing external resilience with sustainable domestic growth.
A worker monitors robotic arms on the production line at electric vehicle manufacturer Leapmotor’s factory in Ningbo, Zhejiang Province on May 29, 2025./ VCG
In recent months, China has stepped up policy responses that align closely with IMF recommendations, placing greater emphasis on stabilizing growth while managing longer-term risks. Measures to boost domestic demand, support infrastructure and high-quality investment, and maintain accommodative macroeconomic conditions have been central to this approach. At the same time, policymakers have reiterated their commitment to structural reform and financial stability.
Despite the positive revisions, the IMF also highlights ongoing risks, saying trade tensions, policy uncertainty, and potential financial vulnerabilities could weigh on medium-term prospects.
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