Going back to talks

The USA and Iran seem to have realized that further fighting will not change positions

Iran, as the party worst offended, decided that it would not break off or suspend its peace talks with the USA because of the latter’s bombing of its territory, while the USA seemed also to have decided to continue with the talks, even though its President, Donald Trump, insisted that the ceasefire agreement of June 17 was ‘over.’ The world seemed relieved, though the Strait of Hormuz was not yet opened. The current crisis was more narrowly focused on the Strait than ever before, as it started with Iran firing on a tanker trying to transit the Strait on a route Iran did not allow. This was followed by US bombardment of Iranian shore installations, which it claimed were sites for missiles and drones. However, there had been no bombing by either side since Friday, which indicated that the warlike rhetoric on both sides was meant to appease domestic audiences rather than to threaten the other.

It is to be regretted that those threats are becoming more specific, more personal, with Mr Trump going so far as to lay out a relatively detailed plan of what would happen if an assassination attempt was made on him. Meanwhile, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei vowed to take revenge for his father and predecessor, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, which Mr Trump could well interpret as a threat. It is going to work against the peace effort that the USA allowed Israel to pursue its own agenda and assassinated the Supreme Leader, but mediators like Pakistan continued to advocate restraint. Continuing the focus on reopening the Strait, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi went to Oman to discuss the respective rights and responsibilities of Iran and Oman over the Strait.  It should be remembered that Oman lies on the side of the Strait opposite Iran, and its cooperation was essential to the alternate route the USA tried to set up.

The passage of the Strait was seen as a virtually settled issue, and by trying to be over-clever, the USA has not only failed to bypass the Iranian position, but it may well have made the negotiations over the Iranian nuclear programme and enriched uranium that much more difficult. It might be difficult for the USA to realize that it cannot get its way by bullying and bluster, but it should recognize that a firm opponent like Iran can resist.