Monsoon likely to reach parts of Pakistan from July 1, Sindh may wait until July 5

KARACHI: The Pakistan Meteorological Department has forecast the start of the monsoon season in parts of the country from July 1, while saying Sindh is not expected to receive monsoon rains before July 5.

PMD spokesperson Anjum Nazir said the system is likely to affect the northeastern parts of Pakistan first, including Punjab and Kashmir. He said rainfall is also expected in northern areas and northeastern Punjab from July 1.

Nazir said there was no indication of a monsoon system reaching Sindh over the coming days, and no rain was expected in the province before July 5. He added that a low-pressure system forming over the Bay of Bengal could influence weather conditions in Sindh, including Karachi, and may improve the chances of rain.

He also said several parts of Sindh, including Karachi, are likely to receive below-normal rainfall during the upcoming monsoon season.

Temperature and rainfall outlook

The forecast comes as the Met Office expects above-normal mean temperatures across the country during the month. It said the probability of warmer-than-usual conditions is especially high in southern parts, extending from eastern Balochistan and western Sindh to central Punjab.

According to PMD data for May, Sindh recorded 0.3 millimetres of rainfall, which was 91.3% below its 1991–2020 normal of 3.1 millimetres. The province’s mean temperature was 35.2°C, or 1.0°C above normal.

For June, the department has projected near-normal to slightly below-normal rainfall across Pakistan. Its probabilistic outlook said near-normal rainfall probabilities are dominant across southern regions, including much of Sindh, although the department noted that rainfall could vary considerably from one place to another.

Heatwave and flooding risks

In its monthly outlook, the PMD said above-normal temperatures may raise the risk of heat spikes and prolonged heatwave conditions, particularly in the plain areas of Sindh, Punjab and Balochistan.

The department said below-normal rainfall could increase the likelihood of extended heat-like conditions in these regions. At the same time, it warned that isolated heavy downpours may still cause localised urban flooding in major cities, especially in low-lying areas and neighbourhoods with poor drainage, despite the overall below-normal rainfall outlook.