Indus Waters Treaty under renewed strain amid hydro projects, flow concerns: Leghari

• IWT faces pressure after reported move to place it in abeyance in 2025

• Chenab hydropower projects raise concerns over flow timing and regulation

• Inter-basin water transfer from Chenab tributaries triggers legal questions

• Leghari calls for stronger monitoring, storage and water governance reforms

 ISLAMABAD: Former Punjab Minister for Irrigation and water policy expert Mohsin Leghari has said that the Indus Waters Treaty, widely regarded as one of the world’s most enduring water-sharing arrangements between Pakistan and India, is facing renewed pressure amid developments linked to treaty interpretation, hydropower expansion and inter-basin water transfers.

Leghari, who is currently associated with the UNDP Pakistan National Governance Programme, noted that the treaty has survived for more than six decades, including periods of war and heightened political tension. Under its framework, India was allocated the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas and Sutlej), while Pakistan received rights over the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum and Chenab), subject to limited permissible uses by India.

Talking to APP, he said concerns have intensified after reports that India placed the treaty in abeyance in April 2025, arguing that such a move has raised questions over the legal and operational stability of one of the world’s largest transboundary river systems, which supports livelihoods across both countries.

Leghari highlighted several Indian hydropower projects on the Chenab River, including Pakal Dul, Kiru, Kwar and Ratle, noting that while each project is individually claimed to comply with treaty provisions, their combined operation could potentially affect the timing and regulation of river flows.

He stressed that the core issue is not only total water volumes but also flow timing and regulation, which could have downstream implications for agriculture and irrigation systems in Pakistan.

He also pointed to an 8.7-kilometre tunnel project in India’s Lahaul-Spiti region designed to divert water from the Chandra and Bhaga rivers—tributaries of the Chenab—into the Beas basin. Leghari argued that even if the diverted volume is relatively small compared to the Chenab’s annual flow, such inter-basin transfers raise important legal and treaty-interpretation questions, as the Indus Waters Treaty was based on the principle of keeping eastern and western river systems largely separate.

According to Leghari, Pakistan’s irrigation network—including structures such as the Marala Barrage and Upper Chenab Canal—was developed on the assumption of predictable flows within the Chenab basin. Any diversion outside the basin, he warned, could create long-term uncertainty for downstream water users and complicate agricultural planning.

He added that evolving river management practices on both sides have increased the need for legal clarity and stronger technical monitoring under the treaty framework.

Leghari cautioned that unilateral changes to long-standing water-sharing arrangements could undermine confidence in international water treaties globally, particularly in regions where major rivers cross national boundaries. He noted that India itself is also downstream on rivers originating in Tibet, underscoring the interconnected nature of transboundary water systems.

He suggested that Pakistan should prioritise strengthening water resilience through infrastructure and governance reforms, including expanding storage capacity downstream of Marala, modernising canal systems, and investing in real-time monitoring, data analytics and forecasting tools to better manage fluctuations in river flows.

He also called for improved coordination among provinces, including shared water data systems, unified measurement standards and joint planning for irrigation and storage projects, stressing that greater transparency and inter-provincial cooperation are essential to reduce mistrust and ensure equitable water distribution within Pakistan.

Referring to the recent supplemental award issued by the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in ongoing proceedings related to the Indus Waters Treaty, he said the decision is viewed in Pakistan as reinforcing its long-standing legal position that the treaty places substantive limits on India’s ability to control or regulate flows on the western rivers of the Indus system.

He added that Pakistan remains on strong legal footing, noting that its rights under the treaty are supported through the established arbitration and dispute-resolution mechanisms embedded in the agreement.

Leghari stressed that Pakistan must simultaneously pursue legal avenues and internal reforms, saying both tracks are complementary and essential to strengthening water security and the country’s long-term position.