Urbanisation pushes Lahore temperatures higher

LAHORE: Rapid urban expansion, the loss of green cover and the spread of concrete structures have pushed up temperatures in Lahore over the past 25 years, according to a WWF-Pakistan analysis based on satellite observations.

The study reviewed nighttime land surface temperature data from a NASA satellite covering the period from 2001 to 2025. It found that the city’s built-up zones have heated up notably faster than vegetated areas. According to the findings, parks, farmland and green corridors saw temperatures rise by 2.16 degrees Celsius over the period, while non-vegetated and developed areas recorded an increase of 3.07 degrees Celsius, nearly 42 per cent faster than green spaces.

The temperature difference between green areas and built surfaces widened from 0.25°C in 2001 to 1.16°C last year, underlining the increasing impact of the urban heat island effect in Lahore. WWF-Pakistan said this effect is especially pronounced at night, when concrete and asphalt continue releasing heat absorbed during the day, limiting overnight cooling for residents.

May and June emerging as critical months

The analysis identified May as the city’s most dangerous month because of severe pre-monsoon heat. In Lahore’s most urbanised districts, temperatures in May have been rising by about 0.2°C each year, which the study said adds up to nearly 5°C of extra nighttime heat over 25 years.

Lahore’s climate pattern has shifted markedly since the early 2000s. Where summer highs once generally peaked at around 42°C to 43°C, recent years have brought more frequent and stronger heatwaves. The pace of warming increased from an average of about 0.2°C per year during the first 15 years of the study to nearly 0.3°C annually in the last decade.

The urban heat island effect has also become stronger, with densely developed parts of Lahore now registering temperatures 8°C to 10°C higher than nearby rural areas on summer afternoons.

Health and energy concerns

June was described as another particularly important month in the findings. Maximum temperatures that usually ranged between 44°C and 45°C in the early 2000s have in recent years consistently crossed 48°C. Lahore recorded an unprecedented 50.1°C in June 2022.

Nighttime temperatures have also climbed sharply over the same period, with minimum temperatures rising from 28°C to 29°C to 34°C to 35°C. The number of June days with temperatures at or above 45°C has increased from three to four days a year in the early 2000s to more than 12 in recent years, the analysis said.

WWF-Pakistan warned that longer spells of intense heat, coupled with warmer nights, create serious health risks, especially for outdoor labourers, older people, children and low-income households lacking access to cooling. Higher temperatures are also driving up electricity demand for cooling, putting further strain on power systems while adding to heat generation in urban areas.

The organisation said urban greening measures such as tree plantation, green roofs, public parks, roadside vegetation and the protection of peri-urban agricultural land remain among the most cost-effective options for climate adaptation.