Trump’s War Powers

House of Representatives vote throws cold water on the war with Iran

The US House of Representatives voted for a resolution which told President Donald Trump to withdraw forces from Iran unless Congress makes a declaration of war or authorizes the use of military force. Though the resolution will have no effect if the Senate does not pass it, or if Mr Trump vetoes it, and it is not overturned by a two-thirds majority, it sends a signal about the political mood of the electorate. It should be remembered that all Representatives are up for re-election come November, and their vote shows the mood of the country. It should be remembered that the US constitution allows the power of declaring war only to Congress, which is why Mr Trump and his officials have insisted that it is not a war with Iran, so as not to fall foul of the 60-day limit placed by the War Powers Resolution, which allows that period for the President to order troops into combat without the requisite declaration from Congress.

Getting the resolution through the Senate might be difficult, because the Republicans have a majority. However, it may be overturned, just as the one it has in the House was, if enough Republican Senators vote in favour. There are a number of Senators who are lame ducks, who were denied the Republican ticket in November after being defeated in the primary by a Trump nominee. While the number is small, it is enough to overturn the Republican majority. However, while Mr Trump will almost certainly veto it, and it is virtually impossible to cobble together the two-thirds majorities needed to override it, it does reflect the mood in the country.

The war is hurting the American public immensely, and they are likely to punish their elected representatives at the ballot box in November. Worse for Mr Trump, even if he does strike a deal, the electorate may defeat his nominees, as the electorate punishes him for the war. As he pointed out, passing such a resolution in the endgame of the negotiation was bound to affect the Iranian assessment of the situation. However, that should not blind him to the possibility that the war was a bad idea. It may have served Israeli objectives, but his acrimony with Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu shows that it is stopping a deal by continuing action in Lebanon. The walls are closing in on Mr Trump, and he should realize it.