The Abraham Accords feint

Trump seems desperate to seek an exit

US President Donald Trump signalled that he was now reduced to scrabbling for an exit from the war he and Israel had imposed on Iran, by saying that he had asked Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, Pakistan and Turkey to sign the Abraham Accords in a finale to the war. He explained it as a desire to make the agreement to end the war more historic, but it seems suspiciously like a cover for an exit on Iran’s terms. It may also leave the ending of the war in such a way that while the USA leaves the region, it expands the role of Israel, thus leaving the USA as no longer responsible for the primary security of oil supplies from the region, but ensuring that it continues to have a share.

It would mark the change of the Accords from merely a mechanism for the recognition of Israel into a security arrangement, one which would replace the US guarantee in the region, but which still be underwritten by it. There are many problems with this proposal, which seems more the result of Mr Trump realizing that the deal taking shape will not be describable even by the most barefaced spin doctor as a victory. The main reason will be separating the nuclear issue from the reopening of the Hormuz Strait. While the Strait reopening is a universal demand, as it led to shortages in oil, urea and aluminum, the Iranian nuclear programme is a Zionist issue. Separating the nuclear issue for further talks means leaving Zionists dissatisfied. Is Mr Trump scrambling to find some way of showing off to Zionists and to Israel that he has something out of the war for them?

The problem is that he has put some close allies on the spot. Turkey, Jordan and Egypt have already recognized Israel, but may not want to get into any sort of entanglement which might involve military or intelligence-sharing cooperation with Israel, as is being said of previous Accord signatories. Then there is the firm stand taken by Saudi Arabia among others, that it will not recognize Israel unless there is a clear pathway to Palestinian statehood. Coming after the recent Gaza bloodbath, .and considering that Iran has been targeted because Israel objects so strenuously to its nuclear programme, it is unlikely that any Muslim country would like to sign on. Particularly poignant is the fact that the US guarantees that underwrote the accords, have had their true worth shown by Iran.