Trump’s threat

Iran does not seem likely to cave, which means that Trump will have to make good

US President Donald Trump presented Iran on Saturday a reminder to Iran that his 10-day break was about to expire, and that if it did not cave in, ‘all hell will rain down’. He did not deliver any fresh ultimatum, but the reminder was couched in terms which also made clear what his main priority was: the reopening of the Hormuz Strait. Because of its closure, oil prices have climbed, with no end in sight. That in turn has caused economies to sputter, as transport and energy costs spiral upwards. Facing a midterm election later in the year, Mr Trump seems to be getting cold feet. Iran did not take kindly to Mr Trump’s remarks, which it called ‘an old man’s rant.’

The problem seems to be that Mr Trump has now got to make good on his threat. The USA and Israel have bombed all the targets they intended, and have now been doing some re-bombing. There has been some bombing of infrastructure, but the task ahead is daunting, that of attacking the civilian infrastructure so badly that the Iranian leadership itself decides that the country has had enough. One option is to use conventional means against one particular city, as was done against Dresden in World War II. It did not work, and the German leadership did not give up. They only gave up when the capital was actually captured by ground troops. Japan also lost two cities, but to atom bombs. The Japanese leadership gave up rather than risk any further cities being destroyed. The US justification for its use of such a horrible weapon is that it saved a huge number of American lives that would have been lost in a ground invasion, not to mention the time it would take. How far can Mr Trump go? How far does Israel want him to go?

Before Mr Trump commits to a course of action that would cause much needless suffering, he should pause. He has already painted himself into a corner, with no way out except a humiliating climbdown. His war machine is already showing vulnerability, and the shooting down by the Iranians of US planes should give him pause. The USA clearly does not enjoy the command of the air it assumes before every ground campaign. Iran is still much less stronger, but it is not totally powerless.