Worries about the attack

Fears of encirclement began arise in Pakistan after the attack on Iran

Defence Minister Kh Asif took to X to express his fear that the escalating Iran-USA-Israel conflict could lead to Pakistan being encircled. The presence of Israel in Iran, the hostility of the Taliban in Afghanistan, combined with the ever-brooding presence of India to the east, make such fears valid. It should especially be remembered that Israel’s involvement in the attack on Iran has led to India’s BJP Modi government being subjected to severe criticism from senior Congress leader Sonia Gandhi, for its betrayal of Iran to curry favour with Israel. This combination of Israel and India has been seen before, and is to be guarded against. It will be no use looking to the USA, trading on the newly found goodwill of the notoriously unreliable US President Donald Trump. The USA has a track record of leaving Pakistan in the lurch, and to the tender mercies of its enemies.

One of the more problematic issues is that Pakistan does not have a strategic petroleum reserve. This has been brought out starkly by the Iranian blockage of the Straits of Hormuz, through which virtually all of Pakistan’s crude oil and diesel imports pass. Not only do prices seem virtually certain to rise, but there could be actual shortages. Not only would there be long lines at petrol pumps, not only would the prices of perishable items rise, but there would be the return of loadshedding on a massive scale. There are 25 days of commercial reserves maintained by refineries and imposters. However, the government does not maintain a reserve. This makes Pakistan vulnerable militarily as well. It should not be forgotten that military operations consume vast amounts of fuel. Tanks, for instance, are not particularly fuel efficient, nor are fighter jets. These are the sufferings Pakistan may suffer, but there is a similar tale all across the Global South.

It is perhaps too late to develop a strategic reserve in time for this crisis, but the import of crude from the USA should prove something of a relief, even though freight costs are high. The present crisis must be resolved as quickly as possible, because the world is suffering while the USA and Israel do not seem to be moving their agenda forward. Iran is badly battered, but it is seemingly not suffering further damage because there is nothing more left to damage.