The Strategic Military Defence Agreement is the first military arrangement made by Pakistan since the 1979 collapse of CENTO, and comes in the wake of a war scare with India, and after Israel attacked Qatar. That attack weighed heavily on Saudi Arabia, it has sought an alliance beyond the one it has with the USA. Both have entered into the formal agreement after years, indeed decades, of military cooperation, which has been wide-ranging and in many ways institutionalised. It bears mentioning that Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff, Field Marshal Asim Munir, had served as defence attaché to Saudi Arabia. The agreement also reflects an alignment in foreign affairs that allows the concerting of military measures.
At first sight, there is a certain dissonance. One common enemy is Israel. Pakistan should feel threatened by it, but its cooperation with India would make it uneasy. The ease with which it bombed Iran, and the almost casual way the USA joined, also give it pause. However, apart from that the main threat each faces is a friend of the other. If Pakistan sees India as a potential enemy, Saudi Arabia sees it as a good customer for its crude. When he visited Saudi Arabia in 2016, he was awarded the Special Class of the Order of King Abdul Aziz, an indication of how Saudi Arabia values the Indian relationship. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia has only recently reconciled with Iran, a country with which its rivalry goes back to before the Muslim conquest of Persia. It is a plus point for Pakistan that the reconciliation was mediated by China which is a friend of Pakistan. Iran has been a good friend of Pakistan, and has always backed it in its confrontations with India. In fact, one consequence of the Agreement will be to force India and Iran to make decisions of their own. Other countries which supply military equipment to one country might have to do some rethinking too, particularly the USA.
The agreement will require level conversations between both countries’ general staffs, because each country will need to know which country is providing what assistance for what contingency. If Saudi Arabia is aerially attacked by Israel, will Pakistan send planes? If India attacked Pakistani shipping, how would Saudia Arabia deploy its seven frigates? Before those extreme situations arise, there will have to be serious discussions of interoperability, joint exercises and training arrangements.
