Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s speech to the nation showed that he too, like the rest of the nation, was feeling encouraged by the PAF’s shooting down of five Indian jets which had struck at Pakistani targets. He was speaking for the entire nation when he said that India would have to pay heavily for its misadventure. The follow-up wave of Indian attacks showed that the IAF is now wary about sending its own pilots into the air, and 25 drones were hit across Pakistan, while there was no claim, even by the Indian side, of any strikes. The drones supplied by Israel are the Harop, which is a loitering munition, a bomb which can be operated remotely. According to the ISPR, one exploded in Lahore. The drones are being used to attack Pakistani air defences, which have been crucial in ensuring that Pakistani airspace cannot be attacked safely. India has clearly converted to a wartime mentality, where the purpose of an attack may not be to bring down retribution for some wrong, but to achieve some strategic advantage for a future operation. India has between 110 and 164 of these drones, which are deployed with the Israeli Defense Forces, and which are being used routinely in Gaza against the Palestinians, and thus more such dastardly attacks can be expected.
At the moment, the whole world is waiting for the other shoe to drop. Pakistan has vowed to exact retribution for the Indian attacks, which provides another justification for any attack, according to the UN Charter., quite apart from the Indus Water Treaty violation, which also does. The two countries seem to be on an escalatory ladder, and while they are not at war, shots have been fired in anger. The problem is that both countries have nuclear weapons, and there is the strong possibility of a point coming where one country will think it has tried everything else, and might as well attempt a nuclear strike.
It seems that the two countries are at the moment following the American playbook, with a suggestion by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio that the two countries’ National Security Advisers should get in touch. As the NSAs have before conducted backchannel contacts, this seems to be a suggestion that both countries are comfortable with. At present. The inescapable hurdle seems to be how to get India to back down from the height it has taken itself to. India at the moment is not behaving rationally, probably because its PM is not rational. Unless he rids himself of his delusions about Indian and Pakistani power ratios, he will only face further humiliations.
