Analyzing Iran’s move

Emotion vs Pragmatism

According to the Israel Defense Force, on Saturday night , more than 300 rockets, including 170 explosive-laden drones believed to be “Shahids,” or “witnesses” in Farsi, were launched. They are referred to as the “AK-47s of Tehran” because they are cheap, mass-produced, and deadly. Additionally, over 120 ballistic missiles were fired toward Israel. Iran launched this attack in response to a suspected Israeli strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, earlier this month, resulting in the killing of seven officials, including Brig Gen Reza Zahedi, a top commander in Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards, and his deputy, Brig Gen Mohammad Hadi Haji Rahimi. Israel’s attack in Syria was akin to adding fuel to the already burning fire between the two states, which has been ongoing for years and has escalated since Israel declared war on Hamas and innocent Palestinians last October.

But the question arises: did Iran do the right thing? There are two ways to view this matter: one is emotional, with sympathies for Palestinians, and the other is futuristic, considering the consequences it will bring for Iran in the future. Since Israel’s attacks on Palestine last October, the entire Muslim world has been shattered and in pain for Palestinians. Unfortunately, 56 Muslim countries, including one declared atomic power, were unable to stand up for the Palestinians at the state level. The Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) was unable to play its vital role in protecting and safeguarding the interests of Muslims wherever they are.

Despite this hopelessness and despondency, Iran emerged as a symbol of hope for the Palestinians, despite the fact that they launched this attack in response to the Damascus attack. The twist in the tale comes from the statement of Daniel Hagari, Israel’s defense spokesperson, that some of the rockets were fired from Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon’s Hezbollah. So, if Iran’s attack on Israel was solely in response, what led these Iran-supported groups to strike on the same night?

The entire Muslim world is considering this attack as revenge for all the atrocities of Israel against Palestinians, but regardless of the situation, they have given Israel a taste of its own medicine.

Now, the other way to look at this is from a futuristic perspective: what does the future hold for Iran after this attack? An urgent meeting of the United Nations was called on Sunday, during which the USA and the UK condemned Iran’s attack. However, Israeli officials were not satisfied with mere condemnation. They demanded that Iran be subjected to all sanctions and that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps be designated as a terrorist organization. They also demanded support for Israel to exact a price from Iran in a way and time that suits them.

One thing that all this landscape exposes is the hypocrisy of the West. They are now condemning Iran’s attack, which injured a young girl, but their mouths were shut regarding all the genocide that happened in Gaza. Hospitals were bombed, homes were turned to ashes, human corpses are still under the rubble of burnt cities, children were starved to death, and 30,000 lives were taken away from their loved ones. But in the end, let us pray for a better world full of peace and harmony.

So, the question now is: does Iran have what it takes to stand against Israel and its allies if the war extends and if all these sanctions are applied? Do they have other nations to support them, like Israel does? And ultimately, who will come out on top?

Iran has strong allies in the form of the Lebanese militia Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad in Gaza and the West Bank, the Syrian armed forces, popular mobilization forces in Iraq, and the Houthis in Yemen. Iran itself has the largest army of 580,000 in West Asia, a larger navy, more tanks and armoured vehicles, and more access to fuel. All this raw and quantitative data favours Iran. However, on the other hand, Israel has an army of 170,000 active personnel, fewer in number but more trained with advanced technology. Israel’s biggest advantage is being backed by the USA, providing them with $3.8 billion in annual military assistance. So, there is a catch: when it comes to qualitative data, it favours Israel. So, winners can’t be predicted, but losers will be millions of innocent lives lost on both sides.

One thing that all this landscape exposes is the hypocrisy of the West. They are now condemning Iran’s attack, which injured a young girl, but their mouths were shut regarding all the genocide that happened in Gaza. Hospitals were bombed, homes were turned to ashes, human corpses are still under the rubble of burnt cities, children were starved to death, and 30,000 lives were taken away from their loved ones. But in the end, let us pray for a better world full of peace and harmony.

Muhammad Saddam Gauhar
Muhammad Saddam Gauhar
The writer can be reached at [email protected]

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