The delicate and intricate geopolitics of the Middle East have been a source of global concern for decades and the recent conflict in the region underscores the complex web of alliances, rivalries and interests at play. In the midst of these complexities, the Gulf Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia, find themselves in a challenging position. They are torn between their budding relationships with Israel, their concerns about Iranian influence in the region and the mounting international pressure to support the Palestinian cause.
The Gulf Arab states have, in recent years, taken significant steps towards establishing ties with Israel, exemplified by the Abraham Accords. These agreements signaled a shift in the traditionally frosty relationship between Arab nations and Israel. They were motivated, in part, by a shared interest in countering Iran’s expanding influence in the region. As Iran continued to support groups and promote instability, particularly through its backing of organizations like Hamas, the Gulf countries sought to align themselves with a more moderate and technologically advanced partner in Israel. They believed that closer ties with Israel could enhance their security, trade and cooperation with the USA, ultimately making their region more stable.
These countries will continue to tread cautiously, hoping for a swift resolution to the conflict and an Israeli response that minimizes harm to innocent Palestinians. The Gulf Arab states are undoubtedly aware that they must navigate this complex landscape with finesse to safeguard their strategic interests and maintain regional stability
However, the recent violence in the Gaza Strip, triggered by the conflict between Hamas and the Israeli government, has complicated this dynamic. The Gulf states have found themselves in a precarious position. On one hand, they are reluctant to overtly support Israel’s actions in Gaza, which they perceive as detrimental to the Palestinian people and as a factor contributing to regional instability. On the other hand, they are equally hesitant to break their burgeoning ties with Israel, which they view as pivotal for their security and economic interests.
The Gulf countries, especially Saudi Arabia, have refrained from taking a definitive stance on the ongoing crisis. They are essentially walking a tightrope, neither fully endorsing the Israeli government’s actions nor disavowing their newfound relationships with Israel. Their silence reflects their unwillingness to directly back Israel in a manner that could alienate their Arab and Muslim populations, who remain deeply sympathetic to the Palestinian cause.
One of the primary reasons for the Gulf states’ hesitancy to align more overtly with Israel lies in their concerns about public opinion. As the Israeli government, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, has pursued policies deemed aggressive and unfavourable by a significant portion of the Arab world, including violent actions against Palestinians and hostile rhetoric towards Arabs, public sentiment has grown increasingly hostile towards Israel.
The Gulf nations are not oblivious to this groundswell of anger among their populations and consequently do not wish to be seen as implicitly endorsing such actions. Furthermore, the Gulf Arab states are frustrated with the perceived inaction of their own leadership and Western countries in holding Israeli leaders accountable for their actions. The sense of injustice is palpable among their populations and they expect their governments to advocate for Palestinian rights and interests. Despite these challenges, there is a subtle shift in the Gulf Arab states’ disposition towards the Palestinian issue.
They are, to some extent, signaling their support for the Palestinian people and their legitimate aspirations. This approach helps them maintain a degree of credibility among their populations and demonstrates a willingness to engage with the broader Arab and Muslim world.
However, at the same time, the Gulf States are deeply concerned about the role of Iran in the ongoing conflict. Iran’s support for Hamas, which was once connected to the Muslim Brotherhood and is now closely aligned with Iran, poses a significant threat to the stability of the region. For the Gulf Arab nations, who have their own long-standing rivalries with Iran, this is a cause for alarm.
They recognize that escalating tensions with Iran could jeopardize their own national security and the economic growth they have worked hard to achieve. Disrupting the delicate balance between their relationships with Israel and their regional interests is not a risk they are willing to take lightly.
The Gulf Arab states are, therefore, advocating for a pragmatic and measured approach. They are likely to maintain their silence on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict for the time being, neither condemning nor fully endorsing any party involved. They are cautious about taking sides; as such a stance could disrupt their carefully cultivated relationships and exacerbate regional tensions.
The Biden Administration’s role in this delicate equation should not be underestimated. The USA, while committed to supporting Israel’s right to defend itself, also recognizes the need for a lasting and just solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The Biden Administration will likely engage in diplomatic efforts to encourage the Gulf States to support Israel’s position, emphasizing the importance of countering terrorism and instability in the region.
The Gulf Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia, find themselves in a challenging predicament. They are committed to maintaining their growing relationships with Israel, while also being mindful of the political and public sentiment that is increasingly critical of Israeli actions in the Palestinian territories. Simultaneously, they are wary of the Iranian factor and the consequences of a more pronounced rift in the region.
These countries will continue to tread cautiously, hoping for a swift resolution to the conflict and an Israeli response that minimizes harm to innocent Palestinians. The Gulf Arab states are undoubtedly aware that they must navigate this complex landscape with finesse to safeguard their strategic interests and maintain regional stability.
