Inequality, economic recovery, and the pandemic

Rich countries have exploited their positions

‘Our malaise is inequality. Inequality of income is now a stronger indicator of whether you will die from COVID-19 than age. In 2021, millions of people died in poorer countries with scant access to vaccines as pharmaceutical monopolies, protected by rich countries, throttled their supply. We minted new vaccine billionaires on the backs of denying billions of people access to vaccines.’ – Excerpt from a recent Al Jazeera published article ‘The pandemic is birthing billionaires and killing the poor’

On the health side, inequality of access to vaccines on one side has led to inordinate inoculation levels between rich, advanced countries and developing countries, where the latter have received much less vaccines, while on the other, it has allowed new, and more potent covid mutations to appear. As a result, on the economic side, similar divergence has also followed, where rich, advanced countries, with much higher levels of inoculation, and at the back significantly greater level of stimulus injections, have fared far better in terms of economic recovery than the developing countries.

Having said that, the world as a whole continues to suffer at the back of both new virus mutations, and the bottlenecks it creates in smooth return to normal of demand and supply forces on the economic side. The recently released Global Economic Outlook (GEO) by International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised down its global growth forecast it made in its October 2021 report of GEO, for 2022 by 0.5 percent to 4.4 percent. The January 2022 update of GEO cited the following reasons for this downgrade: ‘The global economy enters 2022 in a weaker position than previously expected. As the new Omicron COVID-19 variant spreads, countries have reimposed mobility restrictions. Rising energy prices and supply disruptions have resulted in higher and more broad-based inflation than anticipated, notably in the United States and many emerging market and developing economies. The ongoing retrenchment of China’s real estate sector and slower-than-expected recovery of private consumption also have limited growth prospects.’

A world suffering from rising inequality as a whole during many decades of Neoliberalism, has only seen it exacerbate during the pandemic, at the back of vaccine nationalism, strong extractive institutional designs in general in countries, and weak multilateral response, especially by World Trade Organization (WTO) in terms of inability to wave off Covid related intellectual property rights (IPRs).

It is, therefore, important that unduly appeasing domestic voter base is avoided, and the element of greed does not dictate profit margins, if the world has to reduce the dire consequences of inequality. Moreover, a far better multilateral spirit needs to be cultivated, along with formulating a financial architecture and meaningful government intervention/regulation regime, to overall reduce inequality, and in turn reach greater inclusivity, and sustainability, both in terms of health consequences, economic recovery, and political stability.

Citing the recently released report by Oxfam ‘Inequality kills: the unparalleled action needed to combat unprecedented inequality in the wake of Covid-19’, the same ‘Al Jazeera’ article highlighted the consequences of inequality that resulted from the already perpetuated neoliberal world over many decades, as follows: ‘Billionaire wealth, for example, has risen more since the pandemic began than in the previous 14 years combined. The IMF, World Bank, Crédit Suisse, and World Economic Forum (WEF) all project a spike in inequality within countries. The super-rich are having a great pandemic. So much of the trillions of dollars, pumped by central banks into financial markets to save economies, have ended up in the pockets of billionaires riding a stock market boom, while the surge in monopoly power, growing privatisation, the erosion of workers’ rights and wealth and corporate tax rate and labour market liberalisation have continued in full speed. In parallel, billions of people face the impact of deepening inequality. In some countries, the poorest people have been nearly four times more likely to die from COVID-19 than the richest.’

Inequality seems to also have increased the incidence of corruption in many developing countries, which continue to suffer from the ravages of lack of vaccine supply, and high levels of inflation. Discussing the recently released report by Transparency International titled ‘Corruption Perceptions Index 2021’, an Economist article ‘Corruption is getting worse in many poor countries’ pointed out in this regard as follows: ‘Most of the world scores poorly in Transparency International’s annual corruption index. … In the latest ranking, released on January 25th, almost 70% of countries score below 50 [where a score of 100 indicates ‘very clean’]. Poor countries tend to do worse than rich ones, partly because poverty makes corruption worse and partly because corruption makes poverty worse.’

Oxfam’s report on inequality pointed out in this regard that ‘The wealth of the world’s 10 richest men has doubled since the pandemic began. The incomes of 99% of humanity are worse off because of COVID-19. Widening economic, gender, and racial inequalities – as well as the inequality that exists between countries—are tearing our world apart. This is not by chance, but choice: “economic violence” is perpetrated when structural policy choices are made for the richest and most powerful people. This causes direct harm to us all, and to the poorest people, women and girls, and racialized groups most. Inequality contributes to the death of at least one person every four seconds.’

And reducing inequality is not only important for the current pandemic, but others that God forbid may follow. With regard to this a recent article ‘Bill Gates warns of pandemics potentially far worse than Covid’ in Financial Times (FT) pointed out ‘Bill Gates has issued a warning of pandemics far worse than Covid-19 as he called on governments to contribute billions of dollars to prepare for the next global outbreak. The philanthropist said that while the Omicron and Delta variants of coronavirus were some of the most transmissive viruses ever seen, the world could have had to face a pathogen causing a far higher rate of fatalities or severe disease.’

It is, therefore, important that unduly appeasing domestic voter base is avoided, and the element of greed does not dictate profit margins, if the world has to reduce the dire consequences of inequality. Moreover, a far better multilateral spirit needs to be cultivated, along with formulating a financial architecture and meaningful government intervention/regulation regime, to overall reduce inequality, and in turn reach greater inclusivity, and sustainability, both in terms of health consequences, economic recovery, and political stability.

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Dr Omer Javed
Dr Omer Javed
The writer holds PhD in Economics degree from the University of Barcelona, and previously worked at International Monetary Fund.Prior to this, he did MSc. in Economics from the University of York (United Kingdom), and worked at the Ministry of Economic Affairs & Statistics (Pakistan), among other places. He is author of Springer published book (2016) ‘The economic impact of International Monetary Fund programmes: institutional quality, macroeconomic stabilization and economic growth’.He tweets @omerjaved7

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