The unplanned and hurried US withdrawal from Afghanistan, making that country descend\into unrest, has provided the Taliban with an opportunity to take over Kabul and immediately announce their interim government, which has flabbergasted the whole world. The USA’s terrible defeat in its two-decade-long war at the hands of the Taliban confirms them to be invincible fighters and real victorious.
The Taliban’s unflinching armed resistance in the face of the USA for the last 20 years has finally proved Afghanistan to be the graveyard of empire for this superpower as well. However, there is no guarantee that a party best at fighting can also be best in running a state. Governing a state is indubitably a daunting task that requires complete consciousness and expertise about politics, diplomacy, administration, and variable choices in formulation of foreign policies.
The Taliban being conservative, fully acquainted with the art of war, are not that much expert, strategists, or skilled and experienced in steering a newly formed government. Therefore, the establishment of a new regime by the Taliban is set to face myriads of impending challenges.
Apprehensions loom large that the Taliban government may not be recognised by the international community due to its not honouring its commitments. Forming a new cabinet which is entirely based on male members ignoring representation to women and minorities, is a stark deviation from a broad-based and Inclusive government, which the Taliban had promised. Inclusion of hardliners in the cabinet, who have remained involved in deadliest terrorist attacks may offend global powers.
The Brain drain is however another big challenge for the current Afghan government. The terror -stricken Afghanistan,uUnder the present precarious and turbulent situation, is pushing educated people to leave the country which is certainly a great loss for Taliban regime. In an attempt to secure life, the movement of people, including IT experts, policy analysts, administrators, educated and experienced people in all fields, from Afghanistan to other countries means the Taliban will simply have less hands to run their government machinery
The Taliban have inexpediently declared Mullah Sirajuddin Haqqani the Interior Minister who is not acceptable for the USA. The US government views him as a global terrorist who was involved in orchestrating attacks against US and coalition forces. Such controversial moves by the Taliban are attracting antagonism from the USA and European Union that may become a hindrance to the international recognition of this new regime.
However, Pakistan, Russia, China and Iran seem ready to legitimise the new Afghan government in return for assurances from Talibans to never let Afghan soil be used by insurgents and terrorists against them.
Incorporating and adjusting the Afghan Army and Police Force is also a challenging task for the Taliban to tackle. This new regime has to sustain their services by making them part of the current Government machinery, while adjusting some of their own people. If the two aforementioned tiers are ignored and their salaries are stopped, they may fall prey to anti-Taliban insurgent groups. That would be the most dreadful situation for the Taliban. Therefore, the Taliban should handle this serious issue with due consideration before elements of the Afghan Army and Police become allied to non-state actors, leading to a renewed disastrous civil war.
On the economic front, Afghanistan has suffered a major setback in the past couple of months and its currency has depreciated significantly due to obstruction in flow of foreign aid to Afghanistan. International reserves of approximately $9.4 billion have been frozen by the USA. The IMF has also suspended more than $400 million in emergency reserves after the Taliban’s resurgence to power. The European Union has also halted its plans to disburse about $1.4 billion as aid to Afghanistan by 2025. Moreover, Germany was going to announce development aid of $503 million to Afghanistan, which it abruptly suspended seeing the Taliban come to power. The Taliban will have to fix the dwindling economy by ensuring funds flow into the country to escape from further economic regression.
The unbridled economic crisis further begets another crisis of food shortage and insecurity. According to the reports of the UN World Food Programme, 14 million of Afghans are expected to be forced into starvation if Afghanistan is not provided with financial assistance and food aid. Rein Paulsen, Director of the Food and Agriculture Organization, has told reporters that 4 million Afghans are already facing a food emergency and 7.3 million Afghans are severely affected by drought in rural areas.
Under such adverse circumstances and rising inflation, people are forced to sell their possessions in makeshift markets to make both ends meet. To avert this economic and food crisis, Prime Minister Imran Khan has emphasized the world must engage with the new Afghan government and provide them with humanitarian assistance in this difficult time. However, China has announced a $31 million aid package for Afghanistan, including food supplies and coronavirus vaccines.
ISIS Khorasan Chapter is another gigantic challenge for the Taliban government to repel. This lethal terrorist group, comprising more than 5000 fighters, emerged in 2015 from the disgruntled members of both Taliban and Al-Qaida in Afghanistan. ISIS-K had acquired control of the larger part of Eastern Afghanistan in 2016, debilitating the Taliban’s position in those areas; therefore, this faction will keep posing threats to Taliban even after they are in power. After a few days of the Taliban takeover of Kabul, horrific bombings at Kabul airport were carried out by ISIS-K, claiming no fewer than 177 casualties. The Taliban should not underestimate the deep rooted network of this militant outfit, and rather they should be focused on dismantling ISIS-K for the smooth functioning of their government.
There are also equal chances of the eruption of internal rivalries and sectarian violence among varying enthic groups and warlords that can push the country to civil war. Hence, integrating these multiple ethnicities into a single national stream is a challenging task for Taliban. The new government needs to reconcile with all these existing factions by including them in the government as only the way forward to ward off any impending rivalry that could be a disaster for this new regime.
The Brain drain is however another big challenge for the current Afghan government. The terror -stricken Afghanistan, Under the present precarious and turbulent situation, is pushing educated people to leave the country which is certainly a great loss for Taliban regime. In an attempt to secure life, the movement of people, including IT experts, policy analysts, administrators, educated and experienced people in all fields, from Afghanistan to other countries means the Taliban will simply have less hands to run their government machinery.
To overcome all aforementioned challenges, the Taliban have to be moderate and gentle as compared to being hardliners, in their treatment of others. They need to fulfill their commitments and covenants in order to attain world recognition. They should also respect human rights, especially those of women, in order to acquire a relatively soft image of their government. They must not allow Afghan soil to be used by terrorists; it will help them earn international favour. Taliban must ensure provision of food to starving people. Finally, fixing the dwindling economy is the need of this high time for the Taliban so that an impending humanitarian crisis can be prevented.
