Fuel prices\Keeping prices steady reflects global instability

Perhaps the clearest sign that the oilshock caused by the US-Iran war and the consequent closure of the Hormuz Strait is not quite over is reflected in the government’s keeping the price of petrol and high speed diesel steady. Perhaps the fact that a weekly fixing of prices continues is a symptom. The previous fortnightly ‘fix’ was turned into a weekly one in March, to ensure a timely response to the rapid rises in fuel prices then taking place. That the government would prefer to keep the ability to respond quickly is shown by its retention of the weekly mechanism. It should be noted that by keeping the prices unchanged, the government has in effect executed a fortnightly fix, for the price that will be considered next Thursday, on July 2, for change on July 3, will have been the same as that set a fortnight before, on June 19.

The major reason for uncertainty over whether or not the ceasefire will last is because Israel is still stubbornly engaged in combat operations by both ground and air against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran has once threatened to close the Hormuz Strait again, and only continues to negotiate because of the external pressure of Pakistan and the Gulf monarchies, as well as the internal pressure of the moderates within the government. If Israel continues its murderous campaign against Hezbollah, trying to accomplish its announced objective of permanently occupying, indeed annexing, all of Southern Lebanon up to the Litani River, will Iran be able to continue the talks? Israel’s ability to defy the USA has become obvious, and historical precedent shows that Israel ultimately gets what it wants. In 1956, it occupied the Sinai peninsula, but had to leave after USA pressure. However, it occupied the Sinai again in 1967 after the Six-Day War, and did not vacate it until Egypt had joined the Camp David Accord in 1978, as a result of which it recognized Israel. Is Israel looking to make Iran sell out Hezbollah just as the Palestinians sold out the Palestinians?

No one would want another closure of the Strait, but what is the USA doing to avoid it? Israel is supposed to be its client-state, and there is no possibility of its lasting without huge infusions of US taxpayers’ funds. How long can it defy the USA’s public stance without raising Iranian suspicions that it has tacit US consents to the level of certainty?