Climate change could affect most 2026 World Cup matches, study finds

KARACHI: A new analysis by Climate Central says climate change has raised the likelihood that nearly every match at the 2026 FIFA World Cup will be played in heat conditions associated with reduced football performance.

According to the study, 97 of the tournament’s 104 scheduled games in the United States, Mexico and Canada are now more likely to face temperatures above 28°C, or 82.4°F. Previous scientific research has linked that threshold to lower athletic performance in football. The 2026 tournament is due to begin on June 11 and will feature 48 teams across 16 host cities.

Using historical weather records and climate attribution methods, Climate Central compared the chances of temperatures rising above 28°C in the current climate with a hypothetical world not affected by human-driven climate change. It found that almost half of all matches have at least a 50% chance of being played in performance-impairing heat. In 26 matches, climate change increased that likelihood by at least 10 percentage points, while across the full schedule the average increase was nearly eight percentage points.

Higher risks in some host cities

The analysis said some of the greatest risks are centred in Mexico and parts of the United States. It identified the group-stage game between Uruguay and Spain in Guadalajara as the match with the largest climate-related increase in risk. Researchers estimated a 69.7% chance that temperatures will exceed 28°C during that fixture. In a climate unaffected by warming, the probability would have been 32.4%, meaning the risk has risen by 37.3 percentage points.

Several other games in Guadalajara were also flagged. Three fixtures scheduled for June 11, June 18 and June 23 each carry an 88.2% probability of performance-impairing heat, with climate change raising the odds by more than 20 percentage points. In Miami, matches set for June 15 and June 21 each face an 88% chance of such conditions, nearly 20 percentage points above what would be expected without human-caused climate change.

The teams that reach the World Cup final on July 19 in New Jersey will face a 46.6% likelihood of performance-impairing heat. According to the study, climate change increased those odds by 16.6 percentage points.

Concerns over performance and safety

Researchers involved in the analysis said hotter conditions could affect both the quality of matches and player wellbeing. Mike Tipton of the Extreme Environments Laboratory at the University of Portsmouth said temperatures above 28°C can influence tactics, tempo and overall match quality. Players in hotter conditions tend to cut back on intensity and sprinting, which can reduce scoring opportunities, while the risks of heat exhaustion and heat stroke also rise.

Morten Thorsby, who is expected to represent Norway at the tournament, said the findings show that rising temperatures are affecting both player safety and the standard of the game. Former Jamaican Premier League player Alex Jacobs said extreme heat linked to climate change could become a decisive factor at the tournament, while Climate Central meteorologist Shel Winkley said heatwaves and changing weather patterns are increasingly reshaping sport.

Measures planned by organisers

The report comes as football authorities face increasing calls to respond to climate-related risks. Climate Central said organisers have already planned more evening kick-offs in hotter host cities and will introduce mandatory hydration breaks in all 104 matches. Games may also be delayed or suspended if the wet-bulb globe temperature, a measure that combines heat and humidity, reaches 32°C.

Despite those steps, concerns remain because most World Cup stadiums are open-air venues. Only the stadiums in Atlanta, Dallas and Houston are fully climate-controlled, leaving players, officials and large numbers of spectators exposed to summer heat.

The researchers said the findings point to a wider challenge for international sport as global temperatures continue to rise, with organisers increasingly being forced to reconsider scheduling, infrastructure and safety arrangements.